422 Palmer St · Toledo, OH 43608

$58,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1902 4,500 sqft lot $39/sqft · 20% above area Est $48k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS! This home has had the same owner for the past 36 years! Needs some TLC. This could be a nice rental or investor flip. Being sold "as-is"! Cash only offers. Newer furnace within past 5 years.

Key facts

• 4,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1902

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,230/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 911% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $58k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $56,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.82%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,265
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: 20.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 Palmer St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	4mo	$45,000	$29	82
324 Moss St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	3mo	$49,000	$34	77
3119 Mulberry St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,513 (+1%)	3mo	$60,500	$40	66
2344 Elm St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,301 (-13%)	4mo	$69,750	$54	66
2742 Chestnut St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-13%)	5mo	$43,000	$33	60
232 E Oakland St	0.71mi	4/1.5	1,541 (+3%)	3mo	$37,000	$24	60
2459 Franklin Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,436 (-4%)	2mo	$100,000	$70	59
207 E Bancroft St	0.70mi	4/1.5	1,436 (-4%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	58
532 Dexter St	0.31mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,307 (-13%)	2mo	$62,000	$47	57
1510 Walnut St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,388 (-8%)	4mo	$58,000	$42	56
2919 Chestnut St	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,726 (+15%)	2mo	$95,000	$55	55
121 Machen St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,384 (-8%)	6mo	$92,000	$66	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $30,345
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $80,803
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43608

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $462

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2621 Chestnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,250	$0.87	43d	1	0.04mi
1337 Moore St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1194	$995	$0.83	21d	1	0.28mi
152 Austin St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.5	1370	$1,150	$0.84	23d	1	0.32mi
38 E Central Ave Toledo, OH	5.0	2.0	1510	$1,500	$0.99	43d	1	0.61mi
516 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,098	$0.91	13d	1	0.70mi
524 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1150	$895	$0.78	21d	1	0.71mi
119 Winthrop St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	23d	1	0.76mi
1031 N Michigan St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,195	$0.80	23d	1	0.80mi
424 E Lake St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,075	$0.88	13d	1	0.82mi
59 E Hudson St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,100	$0.80	43d	1	0.84mi
31 W Oakland St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1188	$1,249	$1.05	23d	1	0.88mi
710 E Lake St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,000	$0.81	13d	1	0.89mi
724 Mulberry St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1530	$995	$0.65	43d	1	0.90mi
830 Homer Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1208	$895	$0.74	43d	1	0.94mi
626 Walnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1088	$995	$0.91	43d	1	1.03mi
1536 N Erie St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,300	$0.81	43d	1	1.04mi
1449 N Huron St Toledo, OH	4.0	2.0	1430	$1,045	$0.73	13d	1	1.05mi
3439 Jeannette Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,095	$1.00	43d	1	1.19mi
3606 Doyle St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,100	$0.67	43d	1	1.23mi
322 14th St Apt 203 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1065	$1,000	$0.94	13d	1	1.24mi
2907 Rockwood Pl Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1494	$1,100	$0.74	13d	1	1.25mi
610 Cadillac Ct Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1409	$1,050	$0.75	23d	1	1.31mi
614 Cadillac Ct Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1581	$1,075	$0.68	23d	1	1.32mi
601 Chicago St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1924	$1,300	$0.68	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   listed $58,000 Active 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   INVESTORS! This home has had the same owner for the past 36 years! Needs some TLC. This could be a nice rental or investor flip. Being sold "as-is"! Cash only offers. Newer furnace within past 5 years.

2. 1979-10-09
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 51.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $6,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $5,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,593
• Household income: $29,275
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 911.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.73%
• Current HPI: 139.4964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+262.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $58,000 NORIS
• 1979-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $444 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.