409 Venice Ave · Silver Spring, PA 17015

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $48k · 14% over $580/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Ramp for easy entry
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• FULL BATH WITH A SHOWER
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PLENTY CABINETS FOR STORAGE
• COVERED DECK
• RAMP FOR EASY ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual ground rent noted in income/expense list
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $580 per month

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-wide (14' x 66'); Skyline make
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Ground rent applies and is paid annually; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Main-level accessibility ramp; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cumberland Valley SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.63%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,048
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Key West Blvd	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	952 (+3%)	17mo	$49,900	$52	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $21,386
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $58,631
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $486	+0% $470	+5% $455	+10% $439
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $401	+0% $470	+5% $540	+10% $609
Rate	-1.0pp $498	-0.5pp $484	base $470	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $59,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $64,900 Active
18. 2025-08-21
    soldstatus $44,900 Closed 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

19. 2025-06-30
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

20. 2025-06-14
    status Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

21. 2025-04-12
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

22. 2025-03-31
    listed $44,900 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This 1996 Skyline offers economical living with 2 bedrooms, a full bath with a shower and a soaking tub, large living room and eat in kitchen with lots of cabinetry. A covered deck allows for living to extend outdoors. Lot rent includes trash.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $605 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $4,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Silver Spring

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-21 Sold (MLS) $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $342 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.