4807 Fury Way · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 1964 Est $225k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A GEM! MINT CONDITION! FANTASTIC STONE RANCH WITH BEAUTIFUL DECOR! A SUPER EXTRA LARGE FAMILY ROOM ADDITION W/GAS LOG FIREPLACE! BUILT-IN DISHWASHER! 1/2 BATH OFF MASTER BEDROOM. MAINTENANCE FREE EXTERIOR. PRIVATE SETTING! 2 1/2 CAR GARAGE. IMMEDIATE POSSESSION!!

Key facts

• New electric box
• Gas fireplace
• New hot water heater

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW ELECTRIC BOX
• PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1964
• Exterior features: Living area of 1380 (listed living area)

Interior

• Interior features: Located in the Pleasure Ridge Park subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elementary (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #431 of 676 statewide, top 64%, 600 students, 55% FRL); Conway Middle (math 4% / reading 20%, grade F, #215 of 217 statewide, top 99%, 730 students, 72% FRL); Pleasure Ridge Park High (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #220 of 254 statewide, top 87%, 1,517 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 126 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $200k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,858 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,940
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7549 Virginia Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+9%)	2mo	$277,000	$184	75
4902 Greenwood Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,520 (+10%)	2mo	$247,000	$163	62
7364 Lucille Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-12%)	1mo	$216,000	$177	61
7248 Beechland Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,379 (-0%)	11mo	$221,000	$160	61
7100 Daisy Ave	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,420 (+3%)	2mo	$185,000	$130	60
5007 Lila Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,301 (-6%)	7mo	$245,000	$188	57
5007 Fury Way	0.20mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,584 (+15%)	6mo	$200,000	$126	52
7228 Daisy Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,534 (+11%)	3mo	$205,000	$134	45
5215 Pyrus Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,237 (-10%)	5mo	$215,000	$174	43
4920 Columbia Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,456 (+6%)	8mo	$197,000	$135	41
8208 Kerry Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,278 (-7%)	4mo	$175,000	$137	41
5252 Maryman Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,182 (-14%)	3mo	$200,000	$169	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,215
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,854
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40258

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $193	+0% $136	+5% $79	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $65	+0% $136	+5% $207	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $187	base $136	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7809 Axtell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,585	$1.42	18d	1	0.27mi
7820 Hepatica Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,070	$1.17	16d	1	0.55mi
5303 Hosta Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	19d	1	0.70mi
4810 Guy Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,800	$1.95	25d	1	0.84mi
7210 Strive Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$1,495	$1.53	16d	1	1.14mi
1837 Lower Hunters Trce Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,850	$1.39	5d	1	1.21mi
3605 Birnamwood Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1759	$1,850	$1.05	18d	1	1.27mi
6100 Goalby Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,850	$1.17	18d	1	1.28mi
184 Mills Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,400	$0.82	13d	1	1.32mi
1509 Sharon Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	18d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 272-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$412
• After-tax cash flow: $2,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,841
• Household income: $68,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.36%
• Current HPI: 244.6667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+122.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com
• 1999-09-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1999-07-02 Listed $89,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,928 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.