460 Arnos St #78 · Talent, OR 97540

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 697 sqft · Manufactured · 116 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $128/sqft · at area comps Est $87k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent Location!! Thoughtfully designed 2 bed / 1 bath single-wide manufactured home, perfectly positioned in the heart of Talent. Take in the mountain views while enjoying the convenience of nearby parks, schools, and local amenities. Constructed with fire-retardant materials for safety, this home boasts a modern, open-concept kitchen. . The home is part of a well-maintained cooperative, offering stability and a true sense of homeownership and more influence over rent adjustments and important decisions. Space rent is only $627 per month. This property qualifies cash or a conventional loan. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity . Call and set up your showing today.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Mountain views
• Parking

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FIRE-RETARDANT MATERIALS
• WELL-MAINTAINED COOPERATIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.8% in Talent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#95 in OR, #4,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities D-.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.29%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,598
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 2.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
460 Arnos Rd #69	0.04mi	2/1.0	697 (0%)	6mo	$95,000	$136	93
460 Arnos Rd #73	0.10mi	2/1.0	697 (0%)	11mo	$70,000	$100	86
460 Arnos St #87	0.10mi	2/1.0	750 (+8%)	10mo	$82,000	$109	75
455 David Way	0.16mi	2/1.0	700 (+0%)	24mo	$220,000	$314	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $13,756
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $48,317
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97540

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
461 Arnos St Unit B Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	561	$1,250	$2.23	43d	1	0.07mi
461 Arnos St Unit A-K Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	593	$1,250	$2.11	43d	2	0.07mi
205 S Pacific Hwy Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	450	$1,150	$2.56	13d	1	0.46mi
205 S Pacific Hwy #29 Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	450	$1,150	$2.56	21d	1	0.48mi
100 N Pacific Hwy Talent, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,760	$2.22	13d	1	0.81mi
101 W Main St Unit C Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	350	$900	$2.57	43d	1	0.88mi
41 Suncrest Rd Unit 21 Talent, OR	1.0	1.0	530	$750	$1.42	13d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    listed $89,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Excellent Location!! Thoughtfully designed 2 bed / 1 bath single-wide manufactured home, perfectly positioned in the heart of Talent. Take in the mountain views while enjoying the convenience of nearby parks, schools, and local amenities. Constructed with fire-retardant materials for safety, this home boasts a modern, open-concept kitchen. . The home is part of a well-maintained cooperative, offering stability and a true sense of homeownership and more influence over rent adjustments and important decisions. Space rent is only $627 per month. This property qualifies cash or a conventional loan. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity . Call and set up your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $4,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $4,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-wide manufactured home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and good curb appeal. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor improvements to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding a small front porch — A front porch can improve curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch — A front porch can improve curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Talent

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #4794

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Talent, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 8,323
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 8,323
• Household income: $65,762
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.82%
• Current HPI: 308.1302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $89,000 MLSCO