Plan 2897 Plan · Round Rock, TX 78665

$390,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 660 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Ceramic tile flooring at kitchen, baths, entry and laundry * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Loft * Gas range * Covered patio * Kitchen USB charging port * Flex Space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Community park * Playground * Walking paths * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 660 days

🏗️ New construction. The $390,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $455,441.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $391k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-941 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Hill El (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 628 students, 48% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 677 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 660 days — a 12% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,296 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 660 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.85%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,441
• List price: $390,995
• Delta: -14.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5836 Bellissima Way	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,994 (+3%)	3mo	$524,995	$175	61
5728 Toscana Trce	0.56mi	4/3.0	3,149 (+9%)	2mo	$499,000	$158	55
5705 Bellissima Way	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,583 (-11%)	3mo	$425,000	$165	54
4404 College Square Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,688 (-7%)	2mo	$584,990	$218	54
6144 Teodoro Bnd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,722 (-6%)	2mo	$424,900	$156	53
4300 College Square Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,133 (+8%)	2mo	$593,990	$190	47
5861 Bianca Dr	0.60mi	4/4.0	3,237 (+12%)	0mo	$484,900	$150	46
4511 Alfano Loop	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,579 (-11%)	3mo	$410,000	$159	46
4326 Bancroft Ln	0.68mi	4/4.5	3,113 (+8%)	3mo	$619,990	$199	46
6634 Verona Pl	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,605 (-10%)	4mo	$459,900	$177	45
6500 Cetone Ter	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,529 (-13%)	5mo	$355,000	$140	45
3544 De Soto Loop	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,635 (-9%)	3mo	$465,000	$176	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-141,878
• Equity at exit: $67,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-232,179
• Equity at exit: $39,378

Cash invested: $127,524 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $481,401 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78665

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 677
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,832/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,984

Max offer price $319,275

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-626	-5% $-784	+0% $-941	+5% $-1,098	+10% $-1,256
Rent	-10% $-1,162	-5% $-1,051	+0% $-941	+5% $-831	+10% $-720
Rate	-1.0pp $-712	-0.5pp $-825	base $-941	+0.5pp $-1,059	+1.0pp $-1,179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,860
• Closing costs: $13,663
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3840 Casoria Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	2630	$3,995	$1.52	24d	1	0.08mi
3712 Forino Dr Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3722	$2,995	$0.80	0d	1	0.14mi
4406 Venticano Pl Round Rock, TX	5.0	2.5	3101	$2,800	$0.90	78d	1	0.16mi
4465 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2412	$2,350	$0.97	42d	1	0.21mi
4481 Acerno St Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2527	$2,500	$0.99	28d	1	0.23mi
4600 Ercolano Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	4.0	3642	$3,300	$0.91	72d	1	0.23mi
3823 Forino Dr Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3715	$3,200	$0.86	24d	1	0.26mi
3643 Sorriso Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3023	$2,950	$0.98	110d	1	0.42mi
5563 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2030	$2,300	$1.13	9d	1	0.53mi
5547 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	5.0	4.0	2853	$3,995	$1.40	56d	1	0.56mi
4600 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,300	$1.11	9d	1	0.57mi
6060 Teodoro Bnd Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,300	$1.17	139d	1	0.57mi
5817 Bellissima Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,150	$1.06	9d	1	0.61mi
3914 La Contenta Ln Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2229	$2,450	$1.10	139d	1	0.63mi
4653 Alfano Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	3055	$2,600	$0.85	42d	1	0.65mi
4318 Frankfurt Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2220	$3,000	$1.35	60d	1	0.67mi
4040 Terracina Dr Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2458	$2,400	$0.98	24d	1	0.74mi
6562 Teramo Ter Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2199	$1,999	$0.91	84d	1	0.77mi
4937 Morese Palace Trl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,395	$1.08	139d	1	0.77mi
3457 Francisco Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,000	$1.00	85d	1	0.77mi
3508 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2203	$2,500	$1.13	103d	1	0.78mi
3720 Cerino Ln Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3474	$3,149	$0.91	0d	1	0.78mi
5913 Toscana Trce Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1930	$2,150	$1.11	9d	1	0.81mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,495	$0.89	64d	1	0.82mi
5900 Bucine Cv Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,695	$0.96	98d	1	0.82mi
3308 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	3105	$2,900	$0.93	60d	1	0.87mi
3304 De Torres Cir Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,250	$1.17	9d	1	0.88mi
3425 De Soto Loop Round Rock, TX	5.0	3.0	3095	$3,100	$1.00	9d	1	0.91mi
3316 Amerigo Pl Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.5	2232	$2,775	$1.24	9d	1	0.97mi
5772 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,199	$1.08	24d	1	0.99mi
5772 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,199	$1.08	0d	1	0.99mi
6813 Leonardo Dr Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,500	$1.07	9d	1	1.03mi
3327 Columbus Way Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	3618	$2,950	$0.82	113d	1	1.07mi
5704 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,400	$1.12	56d	1	1.07mi
3356 Pablo Cir Round Rock, TX	4.0	2.5	2761	$2,675	$0.97	74d	1	1.12mi
5664 Corsica Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,250	$1.16	80d	1	1.14mi
3117 Hidalgo Loop Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.0	2937	$3,000	$1.02	75d	1	1.18mi
3030 Isabella Ln Round Rock, TX	4.0	3.5	2903	$3,300	$1.14	82d	1	1.28mi
865 Limmer Loop Hutto, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1752	$3,253	$1.86	0d	43	1.31mi
2908 Cortes Ct Round Rock, TX	3.0	2.0	2646	$2,400	$0.91	106d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $390,995 Active 660 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $390,995 Active 659 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $390,995 Active 658 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $390,995 Active 657 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $390,995 Active 656 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $390,995 Active 655 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $390,995 Active 654 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $390,995 Active 653 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $390,995 Active 652 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $390,995 Active 651 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $390,995 Active 650 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $390,995 Active 649 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $390,995 Active 648 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $390,995 Active 642 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $390,995 Active 641 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $390,995 Active 640 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $390,995 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $385,995 Active 636 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $385,995 Active 635 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $385,995 Active 634 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $385,995 Active 633 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $385,995 Active 631 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $385,995 Active 630 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $385,995 Active 629 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $385,995 Active 628 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $385,995 Active 627 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $385,995 Active 626 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $385,995 Active 625 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $385,995 Active 624 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $385,995 Active 623 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $385,995 Active 622 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $385,995 Active 621 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    price $385,995 Active 620 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $383,995 Active 620 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $383,995 Active 619 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $383,995 Active 617 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $383,995 Active 616 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $383,995 Active 615 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $383,995 Active 614 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $383,995 Active 612 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $383,995 Active 611 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $383,995 Active 610 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $383,995 Active 609 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $383,995 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $383,995 Active 604 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $383,995 Active 603 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $383,995 Active 601 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $383,995 Active 599 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $383,995 Active 598 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $383,995 Active 597 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,512
• − Property taxes: −$6,832
• − Insurance: −$2,277
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − Depreciation: −$13,249
• Taxable loss: −$19,717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,732
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,485–$43,455 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Veterans Hill El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 High Hutto Ninth Grade Center

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Round Rock

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2184

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Round Rock, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 184,922
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,171
• Household income: $122,680
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.58%
• Current HPI: 179.7075
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $385,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $380,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $390,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $395,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $392,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $385,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $390,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $386,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $382,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $392,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-02 Listed $412,995 Zillow