189 Burke Rd · Sunbury, NC 27946

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1974 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-upper- 3 Bedroom 1 bath brick ranch on 1 acre in the country. 240ft. of road frontage. Tax Value $175,970.00

Key facts

• 1 acre
• Brick ranch
• 1.1 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• 1 ACRE
• 240FT OF ROAD FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house
• Exterior features: Property sits on a 1.1-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#602 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gates County Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #129 of 178 in NC (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 345 students, 53% FRL); Gates County Senior High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #374 of 535 statewide, top 71%, 479 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Gates County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Gates County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.59%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $48,016
• Equity at exit: $24,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.28×
• Total profit: $114,365
• Equity at exit: $33,452

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27946

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $621

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $743	-5% $725	+0% $707	+5% $688	+10% $670
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $647	+0% $707	+5% $766	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $739	-0.5pp $723	base $707	+0.5pp $690	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 114-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,907
• After-tax cash flow: $6,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gates County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701680
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,737
• Composite: 30.08/100
• National rank: #6345
• State rank: #129 of 178 in NC

Livability — Sunbury

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #21841

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,027

Population outlook (Gates County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,225 people
• By 2030: 9,543 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 8,136 · -20.4%
• By 2050: 6,808 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 5,045 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 4,589 · -55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 17% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gates

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.7% · R 60.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+9.0 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.54%
• Current HPI: 197.8657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $65,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,469 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.