22 Chestnut St · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1991 10,019 sqft lot $1495/sqft · 12% above area Est $1422k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the highly sought-after Pine Neck community, this "sweet" 1960s beach cottage offers a rare opportunity to capture a piece of original Hamptons charm. Set on a double corner lot, this property is a blank canvas awaiting a visionary touch to transform it into a modern coastal masterpiece. The residence maintains its authentic mid-century spirit, featuring a functional floorplan designed for easy summer living. Original 1960s Architecture: 3 bedrooms and 1 bath in original condition. An open kitchen flows into a central living area anchored by a classic fireplace. The expansive double lot provides a footprint seldom found in this beach community, offering, ample square fo

Key facts

• Central living area
• Double corner lot
• Classic fireplace

Tags

• DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL LIVING AREA
• CLASSIC FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE DOUBLE LOT
• CUSTOM POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; High-speed internet; Open floor plan; Full basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides space for utilities/laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $1.25M).
• Recommended offer: $1.21M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,616/mo this rent would consume 222% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $123k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $115k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $350k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$198k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.21M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,212,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.35%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,421,796
• List price: $1,250,000
• Delta: -12.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Chestnut St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-4%)	21mo	$4,500	$6	65
12 Butcher Ln	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-8%)	24mo	$1,150,000	$1,497	41
55 Wickatuck Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	710 (-15%)	6mo	$1,240,000	$1,746	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $1,375,024
• Equity at exit: $1,052,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.98×
• Total profit: $3,842,351
• Equity at exit: $2,196,443

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,562 /mo · $18,750/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,959
• Net cashflow: $10,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,935

Max offer price $1,250,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,882	-5% $10,450	+0% $10,018	+5% $9,586	+10% $9,154
Rent	-10% $8,152	-5% $9,085	+0% $10,018	+5% $10,951	+10% $11,884
Rate	-1.0pp $10,648	-0.5pp $10,336	base $10,018	+0.5pp $9,694	+1.0pp $9,365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $1,250,000 Active 1268-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $283,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$18,750
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,671
• − Management: −$22,671
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable income: $106,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,599
• After-tax cash flow: $94,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,630 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.