22 Chestnut St · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition 10,019 sqft lot $1495/sqft · 11% above area Est $1.443M · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the highly sought-after Pine Neck community, this "sweet" 1960s beach cottage offers a rare opportunity to capture a piece of original Hamptons charm. Set on a double corner lot, this property is a blank canvas awaiting a visionary touch to transform it into a modern coastal masterpiece. The residence maintains its authentic mid-century spirit, featuring a functional floorplan designed for easy summer living. Original 1960s Architecture: 3 bedrooms and 1 bath in original condition. An open kitchen flows into a central living area anchored by a classic fireplace.

Key facts

• Central living area
• Double corner lot
• Classic fireplace

Tags

• DOUBLE CORNER LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL LIVING AREA
• CLASSIC FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE DOUBLE LOT
• CUSTOM POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.25M. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($116k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.25M).
• Recommended offer: $1.18M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,152/mo this rent would consume 217% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $123k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $115k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $350k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$198k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,175,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.09%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,442,960
• List price: $1,250,000
• Delta: -13.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Chestnut St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-4%)	23mo	$4,500	$6	64
5 Oak Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	648 (-22%)	1mo	$1,395,000	$2,153	61
12 Butcher Ln	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-8%)	25mo	$1,150,000	$1,497	41
55 Wickatuck Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	710 (-15%)	8mo	$1,240,000	$1,746	35
7 Windermere Dr	1.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (+18%)	14mo	$1,450,000	$1,465	23
3840 Noyac Rd	0.84mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (-10%)	45mo	$799,000	$1,065	23
9 Shadyrest Dr	1.98mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-16%)	15mo	$1,502,000	$2,146	22
56 Windermere Dr	1.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	906 (+8%)	30mo	$1,700,000	$1,876	22
49 A Bay View Dr W	1.63mi	3/1.0	960 (+15%)	38mo	$875,000	$911	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $1,349,213
• Equity at exit: $1,052,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.80×
• Total profit: $3,778,615
• Equity at exit: $2,196,443

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,562 /mo · $18,750/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,862
• Net cashflow: $9,651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,935

Max offer price $1,250,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,515	-5% $10,083	+0% $9,651	+5% $9,219	+10% $8,788
Rent	-10% $7,822	-5% $8,737	+0% $9,651	+5% $10,566	+10% $11,480
Rate	-1.0pp $10,281	-0.5pp $9,969	base $9,651	+0.5pp $9,327	+1.0pp $8,998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Oak Dr Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	941	$25,000	$26.57	4d	1	0.26mi
135 Noyac Ave Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$30,000	$33.33	0d	1	0.27mi
33 Bay Ave Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	860	$25,000	$29.07	25d	1	0.30mi
6 Wickatuck Dr Sag Harbor, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$20,000	$22.22	4d	1	0.57mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tankCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomHigh-speed internetOpen floor planFull basementPartial attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides space for utilities/laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 57 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 56 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 55 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 54 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 53 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 52 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 51 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 50 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 49 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 48 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 47 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 46 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 44 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 38 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 37 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 35 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 29 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 28 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 27 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 24 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 23 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,250,000 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$18,750
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,226
• − Management: −$22,226
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable income: $101,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,477
• After-tax cash flow: $91,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $20,900–$37,620 screening

This 1960s beach cottage requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding and paint, and landscaping. However, with these updates, it has the potential to become a charming and modern coastal masterpiece.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Dark patches and discoloration suggest significant water damage.
• Major exterior siding — Signs of wear and discoloration indicate the need for replacement.
• Major exterior paint — Faded paint suggests the need for repainting.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Fresh siding and paint will enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve both the home's resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — A modern HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sag Harbor Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 High Pierson Middle/high School B NY #763/1,100 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tankCable connectedElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingWall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomHigh-speed internetOpen floor planFull basementPartial attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides space for utilities/laundry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,630 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.