3012 Skyview Dr · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$224,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,743 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1977 8,268 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a great home with great opportunity. Previously used as a home with an at home business there is lots of room for potential with over 1700 sq ft. The home features three bedrooms, one and a half bath, kitchen, dining room and living room. Great view of the lake with a large concrete back patio and a recently installed 30 foot dock great for fishing. Out the side door is a courtyard and a workshop. There are 2 A/C units for front and back of the house. This home is only listed at $224,900. The house just to the west is also available for sale, as is the lot two doors down from this house, which will be listed shortly. Roof replaced 12/2022. Call for personalized showing easy to show.

Key facts

• Workshop
• A/c units
• Courtyard

Tags

• LARGE CONCRETE BACK PATIO
• RECENTLY INSTALLED DOCK
• COURTYARD
• WORKSHOP
• A/C UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoned PUD; Homestead status: Yes
• HOA & community: Not part of an association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south; Located on a 0.19-acre lot (48 x 170)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Lakefront on Fairview Lake with approximately 45 feet of frontage; Lake view and lake access; Paved, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Mini-split unit(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($980/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Combee Academy of Design And Engineering (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 551 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $225k implies a 364% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,832 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,867
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,972
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $145	+0% $82	+5% $18	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $9	+0% $82	+5% $154	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $139	base $82	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	5d	1	0.34mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	13d	1	0.64mi
2402 Kiwanis Ave Unit 1258725P Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$3,262	$2.73	16d	1	0.76mi
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	5d	1	1.01mi
2919 Maine Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,275	$1.12	15d	1	1.02mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	25d	1	1.35mi
1233 Honeytree Ln E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,250	$1.66	5d	1	1.36mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1099	$1,850	$1.68	25d	2	1.47mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Unit N109 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,750	$1.59	5d	1	1.48mi
510 Longfellow Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,825	$1.39	5d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $224,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $224,900 Active
17. 1998-04-17
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$696/yr (+$58/mo · 59.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$697
• After-tax cash flow: $1,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Lake, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+363.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,170 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.