153 Lookout · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$136,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1974 0.25 ac lot Est $194k · 30% under $112/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Fairfield Bay- a community filled with great amenities including a marina, golf course, pool, tennis courts, playground, and more! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,575 sf of living space with a newer roof and hot water heater for peace of mind. With beautiful curb appeal and room to add your personal touch and vision, this home is perfect for a first-time buyer, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Tennis courts
• Pool

Tags

• MARINA
• GOLF COURSE
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, conventional, or cash
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (approximately $112.85); Community amenities include swimming pool(s), tennis court(s), clubhouse, marina, and golf course; mandatory fee

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 1 car
• Utilities: Septic; Public water; Electric via rural cooperative
• Home design: Rock and frame exterior; Inside city limits
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab/crawlspace combination foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Covered patio; Outside storage area; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays; Ice maker connection
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; washer included; Dryer connection (electric); dryer included; Electric water heater; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in shower; Wood-burning site-built fireplace; Sheetrock walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; washer included; Dryer connection (electric); dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $294 of equity ($944 loan paydown + $-650 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $128,310 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.47%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,725
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Lookout	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-1%)	8mo	$191,900	$123	85
113 Lookout Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-9%)	9mo	$127,000	$89	66
135 Overlook Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,356 (-14%)	19mo	$299,900	$221	43
122 Meadow Cliff Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-12%)	11mo	$115,000	$83	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,496
• Equity at exit: $36,415

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $81,064
• Equity at exit: $41,278

Cash invested: $38,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$171 /mo · $2,048/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $136,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,125
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $136,500 Under Contract 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,500 Take Backups 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,500 Take Backups 49 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    historical Escape Clause
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $136,500 New Listing
19. 2026-04-07
    historical
20. 2025-10-29
    price $145,900
21. 2025-10-02
    listed $165,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥108°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,646
• − Property taxes: −$2,048
• − Insurance: −$682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable income: $4,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $5,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $136,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $145,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $165,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $155 · -29.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.