5151 N Winchester Ave · Kansas City, MO 64119

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1959 0.26 ac lot $245/sqft · 10% above area Est $181k · 10% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5151 N Winchester Ave — where modern updates meet move-in ready convenience! This beautifully remodeled home has been completely updated offering the feel of a brand-new home without the new construction price tag. Step inside to find all-new flooring throughout, stunning granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and countless additional upgrades that make this home truly shine. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard featuring a brand-new concrete patio, perfect for grilling, entertaining guests, or simply relaxing outdoors. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or looking to upgrade, this home delivers style, comfort, and value in one complete package. Don’t miss you

Key facts

• All-new flooring
• Updated cabinetry
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BRAND-NEW CONCRETE PATIO
• ALL-NEW FLOORING
• STUNNING GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 816; Estimated age: 51-75 years
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property type
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.26 acres; Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Kansas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• North Kansas City 74 (urban): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #98 of 324 in MO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maplewood Elementary (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 293 students, 72% FRL); Maple Park Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #316 of 391 statewide, top 81%, 638 students, 65% FRL); Winnetonka High (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #349 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 1,284 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $173,144 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,486
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: 10.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5174 N Corrington Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	840 (+3%)	8mo	$165,000	$196	78
5128 N Richmond Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	833 (+2%)	3mo	$199,000	$239	77
6206 NE 54th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	772 (-5%)	1mo	$140,000	$181	57
4831 N Manchester Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	874 (+7%)	1mo	$180,000	$206	57
5525 NE Meadowbrook Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-6%)	10mo	$165,000	$215	54
7928 NE San Rafael Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	872 (+7%)	6mo	$190,000	$218	50
7821 NE 51st St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	748 (-8%)	2mo	$145,000	$194	50
8032 NE San Rafael Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	874 (+7%)	5mo	$210,000	$240	49
7112 NE 46th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	874 (+7%)	9mo	$185,000	$212	49
6924 NE 56th St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	4mo	$149,900	$208	47
4820 N Manchester Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	932 (+14%)	3mo	$199,000	$214	44
7722 NE 55th St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (+12%)	8mo	$180,000	$197	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,011
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,522
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64119

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $165	+0% $108	+5% $52	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $40	+0% $108	+5% $177	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $159	base $108	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5128 N Palmer Ave Kansas City, MO	3.0	2.0	905	$1,646	$1.82	45d	1	0.42mi
8030 NE 50th St Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.5	1047	$1,595	$1.52	4d	1	0.68mi
5042 N Bellaire Ave Kansas City, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,391	$1.55	25d	1	0.71mi
6130 NE Vivion Rd Kansas City, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,675	$1.59	12d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $199,999 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   historical
3. 2026-05-04
   price $199,999
4. 2026-04-27
   price $207,000
5. 2026-04-23
   status Active
6. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-10
   price $213,000
8. 2026-03-31
   status Active
9. 2026-03-24
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-03-20
    listed $215,000 Active
11. 2026-03-15
    historical
12. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus
13. 2022-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 26.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$503
• After-tax cash flow: $1,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Kansas City 74
• NCES district ID: 2922800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,444
• Composite: 37.88/100
• National rank: #4321
• State rank: #98 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kansas City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #2671

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kansas City, MO
• County: Clay County · 220,651 people
• City population: 439,467
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 33,199
• Household income: $83,929
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 266,022 people
• By 2030: 280,057 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 306,153 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 328,630 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 375,182 · +41.0%
• By 2100: 392,861 · +47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.6) · D 46.4% · R 52.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.6 2020: R+4.1 2016: R+11.1 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -253.39%
• Current HPI: 215.8366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $199,999 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,999 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $207,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $213,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $215,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Coming Soon — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · +22.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.