201 Green Oaks Loop · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2005 7,514 sqft lot $192/sqft · 20% below area Est $435k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Originally constructed in 2005 limestone rock exterior sits on corner lot. Living Room with fireplace. Additional 400 sq.ft. Great Room for entertaining. Large Master Suite. Great Home!!! 3 bedroom 2 bath. Master has walk-in closet. Tile flooring throughout. Wood floor in master bedroom and master bedroom closet. Shed in back remains with home. Oversized sliding gate in fence. Property is located in the middle of Fredericksburg and it is away from the noise of tourists. It is very quiet, very nice neighbors and it is close to everything. Close to schools, hospitals and doctors. Property is perfect income property.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Tile flooring
• Great room

Tags

• LIMESTONE ROCK EXTERIOR
• CORNER LOT
• FIREPLACE
• GREAT ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 979 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 15809% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $350k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,301 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,926
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -19.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
711 Chinkapin Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,902 (+4%)	3mo	$544,900	$286	68
908 Smokey Oak Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,964 (+8%)	2mo	$539,500	$275	67
718 Emory Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,019 (+11%)	1mo	$580,000	$287	62
707 Englemann Oak Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-13%)	4mo	$467,000	$294	58
726 Madilynn Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,696 (-7%)	14mo	$463,000	$273	54
717 Northern Red Oak	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,559 (-14%)	12mo	$351,500	$225	54
121 Feather Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,737 (-5%)	6mo	$454,000	$261	52
708 Tranquility Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (+14%)	17mo	$452,990	$217	43
722 Grace Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-8%)	18mo	$399,000	$239	41
703 Grace Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (+14%)	16mo	$454,990	$218	28
713 Tranquility Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (+14%)	18mo	$453,990	$218	24
708 Tranquility Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,087 (+14%)	17mo	$452,990	$217	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-73,044
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-84,620
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,547/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,988

Max offer price $304,698

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-157	+0% $-256	+5% $-356	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-362	+0% $-256	+5% $-151	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-167	base $-256	+0.5pp $-347	+1.0pp $-439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
713 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	45d	1	0.24mi
712 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,650	$1.75	19d	1	0.27mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	45d	1	0.59mi
112 Parlin Ln Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	3.0	2393	$3,000	$1.25	4d	1	0.64mi
118 Danos Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	3.0	2446	$3,500	$1.43	25d	1	0.99mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	1.05mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	1.09mi
422 S Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0	1732	$2,250	$1.30	22d	1	1.24mi
25 Windsong Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.5	1590	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	1.27mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	0d	11	1.45mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-04-19
    listed $2,200
16. 2026-04-01
    price $350,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Originally constructed in 2005 limestone rock exterior sits on corner lot. Living Room with fireplace. Additional 400 sq.ft. Great Room for entertaining. Large Master Suite. Great Home!!! 3 bedroom 2 bath. Master has walk-in closet. Tile flooring throughout. Wood floor in master bedroom and master bedroom closet. Shed in back remains with home. Oversized sliding gate in fence. Property is located in the middle of Fredericksburg and it is away from the noise of tourists. It is very quiet, very nice neighbors and it is close to everything. Close to schools, hospitals and doctors. Property is perfect income property.

17. 2026-01-17
    listed $360,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Originally constructed in 2005 limestone rock exterior sits on corner lot. Living Room with fireplace. Additional 400 sq.ft. Great Room for entertaining. Large Master Suite. Great Home!!! 3 bedroom 2 bath. Master has walk-in closet. Tile flooring throughout. Wood floor in master bedroom and master bedroom closet. Shed in back remains with home. Oversized sliding gate in fence. Property is located in the middle of Fredericksburg and it is away from the noise of tourists. It is very quiet, very nice neighbors and it is close to everything. Close to schools, hospitals and doctors. Property is perfect income property.

18. 2025-11-08
    historical
19. 2025-04-14
    listed $365,000 Active
20. 2022-04-01
    historical
21. 2021-10-25
    listed $425,500 Active
22. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus
23. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus
24. 2017-01-20
    soldstatus
25. 2016-11-05
    listed $240,000
26. 2016-11-04
    listed $240,000
27. 2014-03-21
    soldstatus
28. 2005-08-09
    soldstatus $135,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,547 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,858/yr (+$155/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,547
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,218
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-25 Listed $425,500 HARMLS
• 2017-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-20 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2017-01-20 Sold (MLS) — CHCMLS
• 2016-11-05 Listed $240,000 CHCMLS
• 2016-11-04 Listed $240,000 Unlock MLS
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $135,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,547 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.