225 Fernery Rd · Lakeland, FL 33809

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1965 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – ENDLESS POTENTIAL ! Large lot! Calling all investors and flippers! This 3 bedroom, 2 – bath home is already prepped for transformation and ready for your vision. Major updates have been completed, including a new roof and new septic system, giving you a solid head start on your renovation project. Interior has been completely gutted, making it easy to design and finish exactly the way you want without the hassle of demolition. Perfect opportunity for a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or custom remodel. SOLD 'AS IS' Property must be viewed before any offer is accepted. Close to I-4, Orland & Tampa.

Key facts

• Large lot
• New septic system
• New roof

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• INTERIOR COMPLETELY GUTTED
• CLOSE TO I-4

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No home warranty; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built area reported
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Asphalt road access; Oversized lot (approximately 0.4 acres, 80 x 220)

Interior

• Kitchen: No listed kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylight(s); No built-in appliances
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($154/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Lakeland Elementary School of Choice (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 644 students, 61% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $220k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,190 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,073
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-49,573
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,806

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $75	+0% $13	+5% $-49	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-59	+0% $13	+5% $85	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $69	base $13	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4950 Deep Forest Ct Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,104	$2.01	3d	27	0.69mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	0.79mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,625	$1.41	4d	17	0.83mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	4d	1	0.98mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	24d	1	1.02mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	4d	6	1.16mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	3d	15	1.17mi
5840 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,000	$1.15	15d	1	1.20mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	4d	1	1.21mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	15d	1	1.25mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	1.28mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	24d	1	1.29mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	15d	1	1.37mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	24d	1	1.37mi
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.42mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	14d	1	1.45mi
6006 Crane Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	12d	1	1.45mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	4d	1	1.46mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $220,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   status $220,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   remarks 675-char remark
6. 2026-05-31
   status $220,000 Pending 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-28
   listed $220,000 Active
8. 2003-12-17
   soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $1,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+139.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,173 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.