The Coleman Plan · Weston Lakes, TX 77441

$305,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,102 sqft · SingleFamily · 747 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Central laundry room
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH ENTRY
• EXPANSIVE SIGHT LINES
• OPTIONAL CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• COMPARTMENTALIZED SPACE
• CENTRAL LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $305,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,004.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.5% in Weston Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,122 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 747 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $269,271 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 747 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,004
• List price: $305,990
• Delta: -13.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8207 Red Shiner Way	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,122 (+1%)	9mo	$394,990	$186	77
8135 Red Shiner Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-10%)	3mo	$359,895	$190	71
8130 Red Shiner Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$148	69
32303 Comet Darner Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,925 (-8%)	7mo	$300,000	$156	67
32438 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-10%)	2mo	$348,275	$184	66
7902 Wandering Glider Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-10%)	4mo	$354,760	$187	64
8126 Red Shiner Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-13%)	4mo	$340,670	$187	60
8315 Red Shiner Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-13%)	1mo	$318,990	$175	60
8322 Red Shiner Way	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (-11%)	9mo	$342,595	$182	59
32210 Slender Spreadwing Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+8%)	9mo	$351,265	$154	56
8042 Wandering Glider Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-10%)	9mo	$342,145	$180	54
33026 School Hill Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,399 (+14%)	0mo	$339,990	$142	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-76,016
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-111,830
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,401 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,106

Max offer price $332,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-35	+0% $-157	+5% $-280	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-272	+0% $-157	+5% $-42	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-67	base $-157	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,751
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8106 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2946	$2,950	$1.00	45d	1	1.33mi
8114 Royal Palm Ct Fulshear, TX	5.0	4.0	2960	$3,295	$1.11	45d	1	1.35mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,990 Active 747 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,990 Active 744 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,990 Active 743 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,990 Active 742 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,990 Active 741 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,990 Active 739 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $305,990 Active 735 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,990 Active 734 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,990 Active 733 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,990 Active 730 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,990 Active 729 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,990 Active 728 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,990 Active 727 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,990 Active 726 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    price $305,990 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

16. 2025-08-01
    price $303,990 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

17. 2024-12-11
    price $310,990 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

18. 2024-07-03
    price $320,990 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

19. 2024-06-04
    listed $315,990 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$8,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,924
• After-tax cash flow: $37/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to make minor updates that will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Weston Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1122
• US rank: #19641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $305,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $310,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $320,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-04 Listed $315,990 Zillow