12799 Lake Conroe Hills Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition 9,334 sqft lot $170/sqft · at area comps Est $232k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home with a spacious open floor plan including a living room, breakfast area, and kitchen. The private formal dining room is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and modern cabinets. Outside, the fully fenced backyard is ideal for children to play. Enjoy the amenities of the Lake Conroe Hill community, such as a tennis court, boat ramp, and swimming pool. Start your new chapter in this wonderful property.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Formal dining room
• Tennis court

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• TENNIS COURT
• BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-175/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,811
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12681 Lake Conroe Hills Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-3%)	2mo	$209,990	$163	84
13246 Skyline Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-4%)	9mo	$234,999	$185	80
12608 Ridgecrest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+1%)	12mo	$224,988	$167	80
12588 Ridgecrest Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+7%)	4mo	$232,900	$164	76
13239 Lake Breeze Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+6%)	10mo	$225,000	$159	72
13450 Lake Breeze Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+2%)	11mo	$230,000	$170	71
13446 Lake Breeze Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+2%)	12mo	$230,000	$170	71
13356 Bluff View Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-11%)	11mo	$210,000	$178	65
12575 Lake Conroe Hills Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+13%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	64
12502 Hackberry Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+8%)	13mo	$234,888	$164	62
12414 Pecan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+9%)	18mo	$259,900	$180	54
12121 Ridgeway Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+12%)	2mo	$319,000	$215	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,186
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-61,188
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,552/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,014

Max offer price $222,417

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $49	+0% $-15	+5% $-78	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-93	+0% $-15	+5% $64	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $43	base $-15	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12757 Lake Conroe Hills Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.12mi
13349 Bunker Hill Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,800	$1.05	44d	1	0.18mi
13285 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,466	$0.88	44d	1	0.22mi
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	18d	1	0.22mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	6d	1	0.81mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,925	$1.38	19d	1	0.85mi
11931 Lakeview Manor Dr Unit 1545984P Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1194	$4,843	$4.06	16d	1	0.94mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	44d	1	1.25mi
11848 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	25d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2025-12-02
    listed $225,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home with a spacious open floor plan including a living room, breakfast area, and kitchen. The private formal dining room is perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and modern cabinets. Outside, the fully fenced backyard is ideal for children to play. Enjoy the amenities of the Lake Conroe Hill community, such as a tennis court, boat ramp, and swimming pool. Start your new chapter in this wonderful property.

15. 2025-11-30
    historical
16. 2025-03-31
    price $225,000
17. 2025-01-03
    price $229,998
18. 2024-07-17
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,552 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,552
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, and a good exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both update ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics
• Both install new flooring in kitchen — new flooring can increase both resale and rental value
• Both install new backsplash in kitchen — new backsplash can increase both resale and rental value
• Both install new countertops in kitchen — new countertops can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring in kitchen — new flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both install new backsplash in kitchen — new backsplash can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both install new countertops in kitchen — new countertops can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $229,998 HARMLS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,552 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.