16053 Farm to Market 848 · Whitehouse, TX 75791

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1982 1.00 ac lot $104/sqft · 61% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on approximately 1 acre in Whitehouse ISD, conveniently located near Lake Tyler. This property features a functional floor plan, a living area with a fireplace, and an attached 2-car garage. The home is in need of repairs and updates, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a project, investment property, or customization potential. Ample outdoor space provides room for improvements, expansion, or recreational use. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• LIVING AREA WITH FIREPLACE
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.38%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,936
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -60.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,154
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $37,697
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75791

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $476	+0% $433	+5% $391	+10% $349
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $366	+0% $433	+5% $501	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $472	base $433	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Shady Ln Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1097	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.07mi
308 Hanks St Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	1.18mi
405 Amanda Ct Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,900	$1.15	21d	1	1.28mi
102 Zane Ln Whitehouse, TX	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.35mi
804 Fleetwood Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,025	$0.99	21d	1	1.38mi
806 Fleetwood Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,050	$1.02	21d	1	1.38mi
114 Cayden Cir Whitehouse, TX	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.39mi
210 Memory Ln Whitehouse, TX	2.0	1.0	962	$1,050	$1.09	21d	1	1.45mi
820 Lindsey Ln Whitehouse, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,895	$1.41	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $150,000 Pending 170 DOM
2. 2025-10-07
   listed $150,000 Active 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home situated on approximately 1 acre in Whitehouse ISD, conveniently located near Lake Tyler. This property features a functional floor plan, a living area with a fireplace, and an attached 2-car garage. The home is in need of repairs and updates, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a project, investment property, or customization potential. Ample outdoor space provides room for improvements, expansion, or recreational use. Property is being sold as-is.

3. 2005-09-01
   soldstatus
4. 2002-05-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,838/yr (+$153/mo · 202.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $4,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitehouse ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845600
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,060
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1274
• State rank: #38 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitehouse

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 15,786
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,786
• Household income: $92,107
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.16%
• Current HPI: 201.297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-07 Listed $150,000 LAAR
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $907 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.