16355 W Canterbury Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$375,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2007 6,670 sqft lot $212/sqft · 15% below area Est $441k · 15% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beutiful freshly painted Surprise home with new carpet, granite counter tops, large covered patio, separate shower and tub in the master bedroom. Split floor plan with open kitchen.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Large covered patio
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• SEPARATE SHOWER AND TUB
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sonoran Heights Middle School (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 712 students, 35% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $375k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,884 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,714
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -14.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16345 W Sierra St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,766 (0%)	4mo	$409,000	$232	90
11752 N 165th Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,797 (+2%)	2mo	$399,900	$223	85
10960 N 162nd Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,816 (+3%)	2mo	$285,000	$157	69
16219 W Yucatan Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (-5%)	3mo	$415,000	$247	66
16611 W Shangri LA Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,839 (+4%)	1mo	$489,900	$266	66
16636 W Yucatan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-10%)	2mo	$380,000	$239	61
11682 N 166th Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-11%)	2mo	$335,000	$213	61
16834 W Poinsettia Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+4%)	2mo	$485,000	$265	60
16640 W Jenan Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-12%)	1mo	$369,000	$238	60
16777 W Shangri LA Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+4%)	2mo	$434,590	$237	60
16661 W Shangri LA Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-10%)	2mo	$400,000	$251	58
16821 W Shangri LA Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+4%)	4mo	$439,990	$240	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-39,420
• Equity at exit: $114,249

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-41,613
• Equity at exit: $141,688

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,017

Max offer price $302,673

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-303	+0% $-409	+5% $-516	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-607	-5% $-508	+0% $-409	+5% $-311	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-221	-0.5pp $-314	base $-409	+0.5pp $-507	+1.0pp $-605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16264 W Canterbury Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1967	$2,100	$1.07	22d	1	0.14mi
16576 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2270	$2,450	$1.08	26d	1	0.24mi
16579 W Jenan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,100	$0.92	26d	1	0.25mi
16453 W Yucatan Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2375	$2,295	$0.97	7d	1	0.25mi
16668 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,150	$0.94	7d	1	0.36mi
16198 W Hope Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	13d	1	0.43mi
16657 W Mescal St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,899	$1.19	26d	1	0.45mi
10960 N 162nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	16d	1	0.49mi
16664 W Christy Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,600	$1.36	20d	1	0.63mi
16805 W Shangri La Rd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	1960	$2,500	$1.28	26d	1	0.64mi
15843 W Desert Mirage Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2531	$2,599	$1.03	4d	1	0.70mi
17168 W Rocklin St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$5,000	$2.50	26d	1	1.01mi
17141 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1862	$4,200	$2.26	45d	1	1.04mi
15481 W Cameron Cir Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	1.04mi
12350 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,479	$2.54	0d	1	1.07mi
17244 W Vacaville St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1530	$2,995	$1.96	26d	1	1.11mi
17226 W Edinburg St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2001	$3,950	$1.97	16d	1	1.12mi
15441 W Cameron Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,809	$1.37	45d	1	1.14mi
15441 W Cameron Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,809	$1.37	26d	1	1.14mi
15425 W Sierra St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$1,800	$1.02	14d	1	1.15mi
17176 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	1.18mi
15316 W Cortez St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	0d	1	1.21mi
15370 W Bloomfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$2,000	$1.19	20d	1	1.27mi
11320 N Northfield St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2045	$3,400	$1.66	0d	1	1.28mi
16223 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	1.33mi
15344 W Corrine Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	2090	$4,700	$2.25	45d	1	1.34mi
17279 W Dahlia Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1972	$3,300	$1.67	14d	1	1.36mi
15769 W Voltaire St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,550	$1.56	7d	1	1.36mi
15769 W Voltaire St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,495	$1.53	0d	1	1.36mi
15224 W Desert Hills Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,495	$1.63	45d	1	1.38mi
15391 W Dreyfus St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2486	$2,100	$0.84	22d	1	1.39mi
13500 N Cotton Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1134	$1,645	$1.45	26d	388	1.41mi
17494 W Middlebury St Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.5	2001	$3,200	$1.60	26d	1	1.45mi
12480 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,600	$1.29	20d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $375,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $385,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Beutiful freshly painted Surprise home with new carpet, granite counter tops, large covered patio, separate shower and tub in the master bedroom. Split floor plan with open kitchen.

16. 2026-03-19
    listed $395,000 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Beutiful freshly painted Surprise home with new carpet, granite counter tops, large covered patio, separate shower and tub in the master bedroom. Split floor plan with open kitchen.

17. 2007-06-29
    soldstatus $229,763 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Under construction-estimated completion date summer of 2007. Call sales office for incentive information.

18. 2007-06-07
    historical 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Under construction-estimated completion date summer of 2007. Call sales office for incentive information.

19. 2007-03-02
    listed $248,888 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Under construction-estimated completion date summer of 2007. Call sales office for incentive information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,475 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$54/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,399
• − Management: −$2,399
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$11,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,815
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+54.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $385,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) $229,763 ARMLS
• 2007-06-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-03-02 Listed $248,888 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.