409 Herrick St · Elmira, NY 14904

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1898 5,174 sqft lot Est $137k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house had a fire in a Bedroom. It is being Sold "As Is". Metal Roof is 3 years old. Furnace is new.

Key facts

• 5,174 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1898

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces; Second garage (additional structure)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story; Existing construction; Wood siding; Stone foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot (49 x 105)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $100k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.10%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,280
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 South Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (-0%)	2mo	$88,000	$43	76
544 S Main St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	2,071 (-0%)	11mo	$136,000	$66	67
385 Pennsylvania Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,044 (-2%)	7mo	$47,000	$23	64
254 South Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,828 (-12%)	2mo	$109,000	$60	58
714 Pennsylvania Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,906 (-8%)	2mo	$169,000	$89	51
303 Homewood Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,788 (-14%)	9mo	$207,000	$116	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,179
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,796
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $989/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $820

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $217	+0% $189	+5% $160	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $147	+0% $189	+5% $231	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $214	base $189	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Boardman St Unit B Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1727	$800	$0.46	45d	1	0.36mi
715 W Water St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	2246	$1,100	$0.49	45d	1	0.80mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	45d	1	0.89mi
357 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.5	1650	$1,500	$0.91	45d	1	1.03mi
355 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 598-char remark
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2024-02-09
    soldstatus $17,000
20. 2023-12-28
    soldstatus $17,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This house had a fire in a Bedroom. It is being Sold "As Is". Metal Roof is 3 years old. Furnace is new.

21. 2023-08-07
    listed $20,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This house had a fire in a Bedroom. It is being Sold "As Is". Metal Roof is 3 years old. Furnace is new.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$989
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-28 Sold (MLS) $17,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-08-07 Listed $20,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $989 · -24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.