24231 W Patton Rd · Surprise, AZ 85361

$214,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2000 1.07 ac lot $136/sqft · 47% below area Est $407k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your horses, room to roam and ride..; This home includes three bedrooms, 2 full baths on a little over one acre of land. Each bedroom includes a walk in closet. Carpets in bedroom are plush with thick pads. The home includes vaulted ceilings that provide a nice airy feel. Priced to sell so don't wait. Buyer and agent to verify all data including school assignments. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• Vaulted ceilings
• 1.07 acre lot

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nadaburg Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 414 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,096
• List price: $214,000
• Delta: -47.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24534 W Peakview Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-0%)	11mo	$445,000	$285	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $125,008
• Equity at exit: $192,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $361,561
• Equity at exit: $415,755

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $206	+0% $132	+5% $58	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $52	+0% $132	+5% $213	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $187	base $132	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $214,000 Pending 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   price $214,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   price $224,900 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Bring your horses, room to roam and ride..; This home includes three bedrooms, 2 full baths on a little over one acre of land. Each bedroom includes a walk in closet. Carpets in bedroom are plush with thick pads. The home includes vaulted ceilings that provide a nice airy feel. Priced to sell so don't wait. Buyer and agent to verify all data including school assignments. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing

9. 2026-04-06
   price $235,900 690-char remark

   Show marketing remark (690 chars)

   Bring your horses, room to roam and ride..; This home includes three bedrooms, 2 full baths on a little over one acre of land. Each bedroom includes a walk in closet. Carpets in bedroom are plush with thick pads. The home includes vaulted ceilings that provide a nice airy feel. Priced to sell so don't wait. Buyer and agent to verify all data including school assignments. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing

10. 2026-03-11
    price $248,000 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Bring your horses, room to roam and ride..; This home includes three bedrooms, 2 full baths on a little over one acre of land. Each bedroom includes a walk in closet. Carpets in bedroom are plush with thick pads. The home includes vaulted ceilings that provide a nice airy feel. Priced to sell so don't wait. Buyer and agent to verify all data including school assignments. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing

11. 2026-01-28
    listed $263,000 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Bring your horses, room to roam and ride..; This home includes three bedrooms, 2 full baths on a little over one acre of land. Each bedroom includes a walk in closet. Carpets in bedroom are plush with thick pads. The home includes vaulted ceilings that provide a nice airy feel. Priced to sell so don't wait. Buyer and agent to verify all data including school assignments. Property is sold ''as-is, where-is'' with no reps or warranties. Seller will provide no CLUES or SPDS rpts. Seller will not pay for any fees associated wih HOA transfer. Buyer may choose own title company. Buyer will be responsible for all title and escrow fees. This property may qualify for Seller Financing

12. 2020-04-20
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

13. 2020-04-20
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

14. 2020-03-18
    status Pending 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

15. 2020-02-15
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

16. 2020-01-27
    price $184,995 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

17. 2019-12-20
    price $189,995 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

18. 2019-12-10
    price $195,900 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

19. 2019-11-26
    listed $204,995 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    Recently renovated this acre property features a move-in ready home. Vaulted ceilings provide the ambiance of a larger open living environment. All appliances are included. These 3 bedrooms w/ 2 baths are connected to a private water company. Easier for financing if needed. Only bedrooms feature brand new carpeting, all other areas offer vinyl planking. Every bedroom provides walk-in closets w/ doors. Easy access off paved roads and the 60. Within 20 minutes of Surprise, AZ. This is priced to sell. Don't wait - call today and enjoy this home and the amazing views of the mountains.

20. 2010-06-18
    soldstatus $33,016 Closed
21. 2010-05-24
    status Pending
22. 2010-05-07
    listed $41,000 Active
23. 2001-07-10
    soldstatus $92,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$1,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$464
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+143.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $235,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $248,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $263,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-20 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
• 2020-03-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-02-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-01-27 Price Changed $184,995 ARMLS
• 2019-12-20 Price Changed $189,995 ARMLS
• 2019-12-10 Price Changed $195,900 ARMLS
• 2019-11-26 Listed $204,995 ARMLS
• 2010-06-18 Sold (MLS) $33,016 ARMLS
• 2010-05-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-05-07 Listed $41,000 ARMLS
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.