7702 Fox Den Rd · Odessa, TX 79765

$365,850

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 6,899 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

Key facts

• 6,899 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Homestead subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces, covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction / Under construction
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Home warranty included; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Wood fencing; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $366k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lee Buice El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 843 students, 54% FRL); Nimitz Middle (math 29% / reading 36%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,303 students, 51% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,735 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-68,550
• Equity at exit: $54,549

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-91,528
• Equity at exit: $31,632

Cash invested: $102,438 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,919
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$457 /mo · $5,488/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,200

Max offer price $362,073

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $100	+0% $-26	+5% $-153	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-151	+0% $-26	+5% $99	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $67	base $-26	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,462
• Closing costs: $10,976
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7710 Brown Bark Rd Odessa, TX	5.0	2.0	1998	$4,200	$2.10	23d	1	0.25mi
7625 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$2,700	$1.56	45d	1	0.27mi
7625 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$2,700	$1.56	23d	1	0.27mi
7710 Purple Vitex Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$3,950	$2.15	45d	1	0.31mi
7300 White Cliff Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1729	$2,700	$1.56	15d	1	0.38mi
7118 Adenium Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	3.0	2994	$3,500	$1.17	45d	1	0.51mi
7118 Adenium Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	3.0	2994	$3,500	$1.17	15d	1	0.51mi
7108 Red Canyon Rd Odessa, TX	5.0	2.0	2009	$3,500	$1.74	45d	1	0.59mi
7526 Horton Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,600	$1.41	15d	1	0.81mi
7526 Horton Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,700	$1.48	23d	1	0.81mi
7507 Orion Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,700	$1.47	23d	1	0.85mi
7539 Orion Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,800	$1.57	15d	1	0.86mi
7541 Orion Rd Gardendale, TX	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,495	$1.59	15d	1	0.86mi
7315 W Pile Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,600	$1.46	15d	1	1.02mi
6909 Boss Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$875	$0.49	45d	1	1.03mi
6919 Kate Reed Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1574	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	1.15mi
6928 Rocking L Ranch Rd Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,795	$1.52	23d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $365,850 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $365,850 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $365,850 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $365,850 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   status Active 1376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1376 chars)

   Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

6. 2026-05-21
   price $365,850 1376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1376 chars)

   Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

7. 2026-05-20
   status Active
8. 2026-05-20
   price $365,850
9. 2026-04-01
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1376 chars)

   Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

10. 2026-04-01
    historical 1376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1376 chars)

    Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

11. 2026-02-21
    listed $357,990 Active 1376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1376 chars)

    Welcome to 7702 Fox Den Road! The Lexington is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Homestead community in Odessa, TX. With a modern brick exterior complete with elevated interior features, the Lexington is sure to impress. Take a look inside this 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home and discover 2,093 square feet of modern style and thoughtful design. The Lexington features a grand kitchen, family, and dining combination space, perfect for staying close to the heart of your home. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, adding an extra layer of charm to your space. Each bedroom features plush carpeted floors and plenty of room for everyone in your home to make each space their own. The primary bedroom is thougtfully located at the back of the home, allowing for extra privacy and serenity. The primary bedroom features its own attached bathroom, with a beautifully designed spacious ensuite and walk-in closet. The bathroom itself features cultured marble vanity tops, as well as perfect space to get ready for the day. Step outside and you'll discover the covered patio area, ideal for outdoor entertaining and everyday enjoyment. No matter how you chose to fill your home, the Lexington provides the perfect ample space to do so. Contact us today and find your home in Homestead!

12. 2026-02-18
    listed $357,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,488
• − Insurance: −$1,829
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,041
• − Management: −$3,041
• − Depreciation: −$10,643
• Taxable loss: −$6,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,566
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $365,850 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $365,850 ODMLS
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Listed $357,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Listed $357,990 ODMLS