4401 Hughes Ln #48 · Bakersfield, CA 93304

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1973 $125/sqft · 74% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated home featuring 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, 1,560Sq. Ft. featuring new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, central A/C, LED recessed lighting throughout, a spacious great room with bar seating off the kitchen island perfect for entertaining also in close proximity to the community pool.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1973
• Listed 90 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $120k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.13%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,929
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 74.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4401 Hughes Ln #118	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	940 (-2%)	6mo	$65,000	$69	87
4401 Hughes Ln #6	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	9mo	$70,000	$76	81
4401 Hughes Ln #173	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	4mo	$93,000	$88	80
4401 Hughes Ln #18	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	10mo	$62,250	$69	76
4401 Hughes Ln #7	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	882 (-8%)	6mo	$55,000	$62	74
3512 Prestige Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	23mo	$220,000	$199	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $6,662
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $27,951
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93304

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $297/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $514	+0% $480	+5% $446	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $361	-5% $421	+0% $480	+5% $539	+10% $598
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $510	base $480	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4215 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,395	$1.45	3d	3	0.40mi
4140 Teal St Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	3d	1	0.42mi
4140 Teal St Unit 12A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	11d	1	0.42mi
3401 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	792	$1,275	$1.61	3d	1	0.76mi
5213 S H St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	4d	1	0.80mi
3608 Balboa Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1051	$2,195	$2.09	3d	1	0.92mi
1821 Lacey St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	15d	1	0.94mi
3101 Coventry Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$919	$0.97	3d	1	0.95mi
2808 Morin Ct Apt 1 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	852	$1,250	$1.47	3d	1	0.98mi
1000 Pacheco Rd Unit 131 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,650	$1.51	3d	1	1.08mi
2704 Villalovos Ct Unit 2 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,650	$1.51	44d	1	1.08mi
2801 Wible Rd Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	3d	2	1.09mi
2815 S H St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	44d	1	1.12mi
3500 Grassotti Ct Unit 50019 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,215	$1.43	3d	1	1.18mi
2714 S Real Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	838	$1,475	$1.76	3d	1	1.18mi
2600 Chandler Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1073	$1,495	$1.39	15d	1	1.19mi
3611 Micheli Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	838	$1,595	$1.90	3d	1	1.20mi
1409 Lindsay Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1049	$2,200	$2.10	3d	1	1.23mi
813 Karma Ct Apt D Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	862	$1,150	$1.33	15d	1	1.24mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	936	$1,395	$1.49	44d	1	1.26mi
3600 Sampson Ct Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	945	$1,250	$1.32	24d	1	1.26mi
3401 Actis St Unit 15 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$1,495	$1.59	44d	1	1.33mi
6401 Castleford St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,500	$1.33	20d	1	1.36mi
3800 Stine Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	565	$1,250	$2.21	44d	1	1.41mi
3461 S Chester Ave Apt 19 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	1.44mi
2905 S Chester Ave Apt C Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	3d	1	1.45mi
2909 S Chester Ave Unit 16 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$995	$1.42	3d	1	1.46mi
400 White Ln Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	3d	1	1.47mi
4519 Gordon St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,695	$1.61	3d	1	1.48mi
331 Pacheco Rd Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1147	$1,700	$1.48	3d	3	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-03-05
   status Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Beautifully updated home featuring 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, 1,560Sq. Ft. featuring new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, central A/C, LED recessed lighting throughout, a spacious great room with bar seating off the kitchen island perfect for entertaining also in close proximity to the community pool.

8. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Beautifully updated home featuring 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, 1,560Sq. Ft. featuring new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, central A/C, LED recessed lighting throughout, a spacious great room with bar seating off the kitchen island perfect for entertaining also in close proximity to the community pool.

9. 2026-02-23
   listed $120,000 Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Beautifully updated home featuring 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, 1,560Sq. Ft. featuring new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, central A/C, LED recessed lighting throughout, a spacious great room with bar seating off the kitchen island perfect for entertaining also in close proximity to the community pool.

10. 2017-08-24
    price $28,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

11. 2017-08-23
    soldstatus $29,000 Sold 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

12. 2017-08-02
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

13. 2017-08-01
    historical 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

14. 2017-08-01
    price $29,000 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

15. 2017-07-19
    price $28,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

16. 2017-07-07
    price $29,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

17. 2017-06-19
    price $29,990 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

18. 2017-05-24
    price $29,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

19. 2017-05-03
    price $34,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

20. 2017-03-11
    price $38,000 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

21. 2017-02-07
    listed $48,500 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Beautiful property in Smoke Tree Mobile Estates. Property includes 2 bd, 1.75 bath, nice dining area and 2 living areas! Sq ft is actually bigger than recorded. Covered Patio and covered carport. Sale to include washer, dryer, range oven, refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher and sheds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $297 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 206.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$297
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$959
• After-tax cash flow: $4,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,037
• Household income: $50,790
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2587.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 18% White 14% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.78%
• Current HPI: 397.9557
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+147.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2017-08-24 Price Changed $28,999 GEMLS
• 2017-08-23 Sold (MLS) $29,000 GEMLS
• 2017-08-02 Pending — GEMLS
• 2017-08-01 Price Changed $29,000 GEMLS
• 2017-08-01 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2017-07-19 Price Changed $28,999 GEMLS
• 2017-07-07 Price Changed $29,900 GEMLS
• 2017-06-19 Price Changed $29,990 GEMLS
• 2017-05-24 Price Changed $29,999 GEMLS
• 2017-05-03 Price Changed $34,999 GEMLS
• 2017-03-11 Price Changed $38,000 GEMLS
• 2017-02-07 Listed $48,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.