871 Lake St · Meridian, MS 39307

$39,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom property presents an excellent investment opportunity just outside the city limits, offering the perfect balance of rural privacy and convenient access to Meridian. Situated on a spacious lot, this home is ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Property Being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Spacious lot
• Rural privacy

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• RURAL PRIVACY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage structure on property; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Electric range; Range; Electric water heater; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#141 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meridian Public Schools (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #109 of 130 in MS (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lauderdale County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,795 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.94%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $36,304
• Equity at exit: $5,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $86,780
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39307

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $39,995

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,999
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,995 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,995 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,995 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,995 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,995 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,995 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,995 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,995 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,995 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,995 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,995 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,995 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,995 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,995 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,995 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,995 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $39,995 Active 324-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,240
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$1,163
• Taxable income: $7,899
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,896
• After-tax cash flow: $6,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2802910
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,236
• Composite: 11.87/100
• National rank: #9673
• State rank: #109 of 130 in MS

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #14839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 42,445
• Population (ZIP): 15,636

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,158 people
• By 2030: 72,770 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,309 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 61,797 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 49,790 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 39,797 · -47.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% White 26% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+16.0 2016: R+23.0 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.34%
• Current HPI: 121.0078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $39,995 EMR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.