21722 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl · Houston, TX 77484

$266,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Alamo Management Group handles the association; Annual association fee of $375

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 13); Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (11 x 12; 11 x 11; 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $266,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-534 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,210 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,990
• List price: $266,990
• Delta: -12.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21738 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,014 (0%)	0mo	$298,990	$148	98
21602 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-2%)	1mo	$270,990	$137	87
21523 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+3%)	0mo	$302,990	$145	84
21603 Berry Crest Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,023 (+0%)	0mo	$289,990	$143	83
21739 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-6%)	1mo	$307,990	$162	83
21623 Berry Crest Ln	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,026 (+1%)	1mo	$299,960	$148	82
21639 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-6%)	1mo	$307,990	$162	82
21703 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-7%)	1mo	$321,990	$171	81
21511 Barnridge Ct	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+3%)	1mo	$270,840	$130	79
21707 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (-11%)	1mo	$307,990	$172	72
21623 Colonial Meadow Trl	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-13%)	1mo	$297,990	$170	65
21610 Berry Crest Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (-13%)	1mo	$262,690	$150	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-89,169
• Equity at exit: $45,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-144,170
• Equity at exit: $26,283

Cash invested: $85,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,560/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $226,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-429	+0% $-534	+5% $-639	+10% $-744
Rent	-10% $-694	-5% $-614	+0% $-534	+5% $-454	+10% $-375
Rate	-1.0pp $-381	-0.5pp $-457	base $-534	+0.5pp $-613	+1.0pp $-693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,998
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	7d	1	0.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $266,990 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $266,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $281,490 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   price $281,490 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,940 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,940 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,940 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,940 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,940 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,940 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,940 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,940 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,940 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,940 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    historical
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $294,990 Active 680-char remark
19. 2026-05-09
    listed $294,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

20. 2026-05-08
    listed $294,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,028
• − Property taxes: −$4,560
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,843
• Taxable loss: −$11,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $281,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $285,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $285,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Listed $294,990 HARMLS