12789 Birwood St · Detroit, MI 48238

$129,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1925 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home with covered front porch area. Large Basement and 2 Car Garage for extra storage! Home is tenant occupied. Please do not walk property without an appointment.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Extra storage
• Large basement

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BASEMENT
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,366/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $130k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13176 Manor St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,478 (+2%)	2mo	$60,500	$41	79
12162 Kentucky St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,415 (-3%)	4mo	$42,000	$30	66
13955 Ohio St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,448 (-0%)	5mo	$37,000	$26	63
12303 Cloverlawn St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,454 (-0%)	4mo	$58,500	$40	59
12667 Sorrento St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,309 (-10%)	0mo	$65,000	$50	56
13586 Indiana St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,298 (-11%)	2mo	$30,000	$23	55
12027 Manor St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,340 (-8%)	3mo	$86,750	$65	54
11931 Wisconsin St	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,407 (-3%)	5mo	$135,900	$97	52
14265 Appoline St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,384 (-5%)	0mo	$76,000	$55	49
12096 Meyers Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	0mo	$30,000	$24	48
13581 Cloverlawn St	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,240 (-15%)	4mo	$143,000	$115	38
13903 Cloverlawn Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,265 (-13%)	5mo	$140,000	$111	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,891
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $28,227
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,117/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $204	+0% $168	+5% $131	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $114	+0% $168	+5% $222	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $201	base $168	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12650 Griggs St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,375	$0.84	25d	1	0.12mi
12144 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	0.39mi
13620 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	5d	1	0.43mi
13965 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1222	$1,294	$1.06	18d	1	0.44mi
12303 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1454	$1,400	$0.96	44d	1	0.63mi
13979 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,334	$1.03	21d	1	0.64mi
14242 Ohio St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	44d	1	0.77mi
14011 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	18d	1	0.79mi
14011 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	2d	1	0.79mi
10002 Manor Unit 2 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.89mi
13620 Tuller St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1064	$1,374	$1.29	13d	1	0.93mi
Ohio St Unit 4 Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1400	$750	$0.54	44d	1	0.94mi
14550 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	17d	1	1.04mi
14881 Mendota St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,100	$1.07	25d	1	1.11mi
9558 Meyers Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.13mi
14656 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	18d	1	1.18mi
14284 Cruse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1121	$1,150	$1.03	17d	1	1.20mi
12032 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,423	$1.58	5d	1	1.21mi
12778 Strathmoor St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1597	$1,150	$0.72	5d	1	1.22mi
13331 Strathmoor St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,100	$1.01	17d	1	1.28mi
14891 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	44d	1	1.33mi
12754 Marlowe St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,400	$1.39	17d	1	1.33mi
4287 W Grand St Unit 4289 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,000	$0.80	44d	1	1.35mi
4336 Buena Vista St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	1.37mi
9355 Ward St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,327	$1.11	44d	1	1.37mi
4341 Glendale St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.5	1832	$1,680	$0.92	5d	1	1.40mi
14903 Tracey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,100	$1.10	17d	1	1.40mi
14590 Ardmore St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	3d	1	1.40mi
9209 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1589	$1,500	$0.94	44d	1	1.41mi
9340 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	44d	1	1.46mi
12039 Lauder St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Charming 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home with covered front porch area. Large Basement and 2 Car Garage for extra storage! Home is tenant occupied. Please do not walk property without an appointment.

8. 2026-06-08
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Charming 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home with covered front porch area. Large Basement and 2 Car Garage for extra storage! Home is tenant occupied. Please do not walk property without an appointment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,117
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$49
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $2,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+73.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-27 Listed $70,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-26 Listed $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-06 Sold (MLS) $42,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-01-28 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-04-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-01-14 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,117 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.