Plan 1637 Plan · Leesburg, FL 34788

$277,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily · 597 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Near beautiful lakes
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• NEAR BEAUTIFUL LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $277,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Plan 1637)
• Exterior features: Located at 9891 Orion Loop, Leesburg FL 34788

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1637; New construction plan (Plan 1637)

🏗️ New construction. The $277,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,489.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Leesburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Treadway Elementary School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 879 students, 66% FRL); Oak Park Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 575 students, 70% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,503/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 406% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 597 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $244,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 597 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,489
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9774 Carson Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-8%)	1mo	$294,858	$196	74
9910 Canterbury Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+14%)	2mo	$404,000	$217	65
10238 Summit Square Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-2%)	14mo	$290,000	$180	61
10118 Rockdale Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-8%)	1mo	$295,000	$197	48
9736 Fairway Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,727 (+6%)	22mo	$315,000	$182	47
32835 Forest Ave	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,782 (+9%)	2mo	$337,022	$189	46
10409 Pleasant View Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (+11%)	9mo	$399,000	$219	44
10341 Summit Square Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,478 (-10%)	21mo	$300,000	$203	42
33028 Lake Bend Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (+10%)	22mo	$480,000	$267	41
33624 Dolores Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+8%)	12mo	$330,000	$187	39
10308 Pebblestone Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-11%)	13mo	$285,000	$196	39
10444 Summit Square Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,397 (-15%)	21mo	$289,000	$207	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,202
• Equity at exit: $48,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-79,815
• Equity at exit: $27,883

Cash invested: $90,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34788

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,691
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,837/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,821

Max offer price $286,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-140	+0% $-251	+5% $-362	+10% $-474
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-350	+0% $-251	+5% $-152	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-169	base $-251	+0.5pp $-335	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,622
• Closing costs: $9,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10240 Barrington Ct Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	2090	$2,700	$1.29	14d	1	0.32mi
10402 Pleasant View Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,599	$1.35	7d	1	0.51mi
32635 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1159	$1,950	$1.68	26d	1	0.93mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	16d	1	0.94mi
32629 Vista Ave Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	20d	1	0.94mi
33732 Spring Dr Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2170	$3,000	$1.38	26d	1	1.22mi
34000 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,100	$1.36	26d	1	1.24mi
33932 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,400	$1.14	26d	1	1.26mi
33670 Sky Blossom Cir Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,950	$1.27	26d	1	1.45mi
8508 Arbour Lake Dr Leesburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,473	$1.43	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $277,490 Active 597 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,490 Active 594 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,490 Active 593 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,490 Active 592 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,490 Active 591 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $277,490 Active 589 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,490 Active 585 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,490 Active 584 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $277,490 Active 583 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $277,490 Active 580 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,490 Active 579 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,490 Active 578 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,490 Active 577 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,490 Active 576 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,064
• − Property taxes: −$4,837
• − Insurance: −$1,612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − Depreciation: −$9,381
• Taxable loss: −$8,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,137
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 406.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.07%
• Current HPI: 273.6616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B