39678 Road 425B #45 · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$89,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1977 17 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, Double-Wide Mobile Home With Updates in a popular 55+ Park in downtown Oakhurst, CA; close to shopping, medical clinics, churches, restaurants, golfing, hiking trails, library, community center, Bass Lake & Yosemite National Park. This 1977 2br/1.5ba home has had updates such as quality laminate flooring installed throughout, all the plumbing replaced, as well as other features such as some updated light fixtures, a newer stainless hood, a covered patio, and a screened-in porch for extra living area. Enjoy outdoor breezes while sheltered from strong sun and insects. Located in the back of the park close to an open area, this sweet home has lots of windows, a large master bedroom, and an unusual sense of open space around it due to the siting of the neighboring homes. On the uphill side, the home is set way back on its lot, and the other neighbor is set lower than this home, and there is no home built behind it, making it feel less crowded than many units that are closer together. A spacious single-wide carport has a large storage shed as well. It's hard to find a pretty, convenient, affordable home like this in the mobile home parks near Yosemite. This park allows pets with a size limit of 20 lbs, and offers amenities at the central clubhouse, including RV parking, a billiard room and more. Space rent is currently $700/mo, and a new buyer must be approved by the park manager.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Plumbing replaced
• Newer stainless hood

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• QUALITY LAMINATE FLOORING
• PLUMBING REPLACED
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEWER STAINLESS HOOD
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Madera County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Has carport
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities available; Propane
• Home design: Mobile home
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Manufactured by Guerdon (Kingswood model)
• Exterior features: One level; Covered brick deck with screened area; Shed(s); Mountain setting; Mature landscaping; Park space rented

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1.5 bathrooms; Tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and central air conditioning
• Interior features: Disposal; Laminate flooring; No basement listed
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $89,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$254,496) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.5% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $88.91M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $89k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.42%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49400 River Park Rd #75	0.20mi	2/1.0	952 (-10%)	15mo	$229,900	$241	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $33,781
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $91,558
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $89,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $89,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 695-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $89,000,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 50 unhealthy d/yr today · 55 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $7,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+593233.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $89,000,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $93,500 CRMLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $59,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $59,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-01-24 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-01-24 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2022-01-18 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2022-01-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-12-07 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-12-07 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-12-04 Listed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2021-12-04 Listed $59,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2012-03-07 Sold (MLS) $15,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2012-02-29 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2012-02-29 Price Changed $19,950 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-05-02 Listed $15,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2017): $141 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.