411 Van Roen Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 8,130 sqft lot Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCELLENT BUY, PRICED TO SELL. 4TH BR IS IDEAL FOR DR OR LR USE. FENCED REAR YD W/ POOL DECK. LOVELY MODERN CERAMIC BATH. LG 24X14 GARAGE. PULLDOWN ATTIC STAIRS, WOODSTOVE IN LR-NOT PRESENTLY HOOKED-UP. * SEE BRK POLICY.

Key facts

• Expansive backyard
• 8,130 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULLY FENCED CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM BUILT UPDATED KITCHEN
• VAULTED-CEILING FAMILY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,292/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $220k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $219,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Van Roen Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	94
713 Deerfield Dr E	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-1%)	8mo	$215,000	$174	67
459 Euclid Rd	0.24mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,357 (+9%)	7mo	$280,000	$206	62
440 Van Dyke Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+13%)	4mo	$210,000	$149	61
459 Elmdale Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	8mo	$300,000	$244	61
222 Deerfield Dr E	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+10%)	7mo	$233,000	$169	60
502 Mary Elaine Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+10%)	8mo	$206,000	$150	57
704 Dawes Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-2%)	5mo	$110,000	$90	56
439 Van Dyke Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,398 (+12%)	8mo	$295,000	$211	55
162 Deerfield Dr W	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,290 (+3%)	7mo	$215,000	$167	45
5485 Walker Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,156 (-8%)	5mo	$190,000	$164	44
733 Deerfield Dr E	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+14%)	4mo	$255,000	$178	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,713
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $39,734
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $565/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Patriot Cir Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1451	$3,115	$2.15	43d	6	0.46mi
119 Hotel St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	43d	14	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 1998-05-11
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 1996-07-19
   soldstatus $50,000 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   EXCELLENT BUY, PRICED TO SELL. 4TH BR IS IDEAL FOR DR OR LR USE. FENCED REAR YD W/ POOL DECK. LOVELY MODERN CERAMIC BATH. LG 24X14 GARAGE. PULLDOWN ATTIC STAIRS, WOODSTOVE IN LR-NOT PRESENTLY HOOKED-UP. * SEE BRK POLICY.

5. 1996-07-19
   soldstatus $50,000

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   EXCELLENT BUY, PRICED TO SELL. 4TH BR IS IDEAL FOR DR OR LR USE. FENCED REAR YD W/ POOL DECK. LOVELY MODERN CERAMIC BATH. LG 24X14 GARAGE. PULLDOWN ATTIC STAIRS, WOODSTOVE IN LR-NOT PRESENTLY HOOKED-UP. * SEE BRK POLICY.

6. 1996-05-09
   listed $55,900 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   EXCELLENT BUY, PRICED TO SELL. 4TH BR IS IDEAL FOR DR OR LR USE. FENCED REAR YD W/ POOL DECK. LOVELY MODERN CERAMIC BATH. LG 24X14 GARAGE. PULLDOWN ATTIC STAIRS, WOODSTOVE IN LR-NOT PRESENTLY HOOKED-UP. * SEE BRK POLICY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $565 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,575/yr (+$131/mo · 278.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$565
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $2,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$653
• After-tax cash flow: $5,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+293.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $219,900 CNYIS
• 1998-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-19 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CNYIS
• 1996-05-09 Listed $55,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $565 · -43.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.