3804 Cedar Spg · Midland, TX 79703

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1952 7,362 sqft lot Est $252k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a lot of house for the money. The air conditioner, heater, dish washer and water heater are all recently new. Also there is a nice wood burning fireplace, plus a functioning green house for plants. There is central heat and air.

Key facts

• Incredible workshop
• Gourmet kitchen
• Bonus room

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• INCREDIBLE WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,782
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3506 W Michigan Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,063 (+7%)	10mo	$270,400	$131	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,994
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,265
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,680/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,823

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.08mi
3403 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	13d	1	0.41mi
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	20d	1	0.46mi
3607 W Michigan Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,500	$1.63	20d	1	0.47mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	44d	1	0.59mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	13d	8	0.62mi
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	43d	1	0.66mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	0.73mi
4603 Mercedes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,199	$1.32	20d	1	0.73mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	43d	1	0.82mi
3401 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	20d	1	0.82mi
3105 Barkley Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,350	$1.36	13d	1	0.85mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	43d	1	0.86mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	13d	1	0.87mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	43d	1	0.88mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	20d	1	0.91mi
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	43d	1	0.92mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	20d	1	0.93mi
3900 Douglas Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,800	$1.43	43d	1	1.15mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 213 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	1.16mi
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	43d	1	1.33mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,590	$2.32	43d	5	1.35mi
5205 Blue Haven Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1539	$6,000	$3.90	43d	1	1.38mi
3619 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	13d	1	1.40mi
2601 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2108	$2,200	$1.04	13d	1	1.47mi
2406 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1620	$2,500	$1.54	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-09-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-08
   price $215,000
3. 2025-07-16
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2017-12-06
   soldstatus
5. 2017-06-06
   soldstatus
6. 2013-11-04
   soldstatus
7. 2001-01-22
   soldstatus 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   This is a lot of house for the money. The air conditioner, heater, dish washer and water heater are all recently new. Also there is a nice wood burning fireplace, plus a functioning green house for plants. There is central heat and air.

8. 2001-01-22
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   This is a lot of house for the money. The air conditioner, heater, dish washer and water heater are all recently new. Also there is a nice wood burning fireplace, plus a functioning green house for plants. There is central heat and air.

9. 2000-11-16
   listed $45,000 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   This is a lot of house for the money. The air conditioner, heater, dish washer and water heater are all recently new. Also there is a nice wood burning fireplace, plus a functioning green house for plants. There is central heat and air.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,680 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,254/yr (+$105/mo · 46.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,680
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $3,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+377.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-15 Pending — PBBOR
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $215,000 PBBOR
• 2025-07-16 Listed $225,000 PBBOR
• 2017-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-22 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2000-11-16 Listed $45,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,680 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.