8922 Coqui Song Ln · Connerton, FL 34637

$273,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,601 sqft · Townhouse · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $309k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A porch leads into the first level of this two-story townhome where the family room, dining room and kitchen are situated among an open floorplan that maximizes the footprint of the interior. A lanai at the back is the perfect spot to enjoy a morning cup of coffee. Three bedrooms, all situated upstairs, complete this home.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Lanai
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $279,590

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Mulberry floor plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1601

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Mulberry plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,550 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.51%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,993
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8775 Coquil Song Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	7mo	$268,040	$167	90
8953 Gallantree Pl	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	9mo	$300,000	$187	80
9012 Gallantree Pl	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$310,490	$194	68
9034 Gallantree Pl	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$314,900	$197	68
9016 Gallantree Pl	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	24mo	$309,990	$194	67
9040 Gallantree Pl	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	24mo	$311,900	$195	67
9084 Gallantree Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$300,805	$188	66
9118 Gallantree Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$309,000	$193	66
9098 Gallantree Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$307,490	$192	66
9094 Gallantree Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	23mo	$309,990	$194	66
9124 Gallantree Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,601 (0%)	22mo	$304,900	$190	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,762
• Equity at exit: $59,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $40,580
• Equity at exit: $56,293

Cash invested: $76,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $273,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,498
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	12d	1	0.24mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	17d	1	0.36mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	2.0	2.5	1951	$2,350	$1.20	4d	1	0.84mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	0.91mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	12d	1	0.98mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	14d	1	1.01mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.06mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	4d	1	1.08mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	24d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $273,990 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $273,890 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $272,890 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,790 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,790 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $272,790 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $272,690 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,690 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $272,690 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,640 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,640 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,729
• − Management: −$2,729
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$35
• After-tax cash flow: $4,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates like painting and landscaping that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can make the home more inviting and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B