410 E Roger Welsch Ave · Dannebrog, NE 68831

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1910 0.55 ac lot $88/sqft · 13% above area Est $159k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

There is operating toilet in basement and a shower a base in basement

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

Tags

• OPERATING TOILET IN BASEMENT
• SHOWER A BASE IN BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-262 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (42.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#405 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Centura Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #22 of 111 in NE (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Howard County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,647 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,047
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -30.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,334
• Equity at exit: $56,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $27,995
• Equity at exit: $92,749

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68831

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,105/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $63,647

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $110,000 Active 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    There is operating toilet in basement and a shower a base in basement

16. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$66/mo · 72.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,105
• − Insurance: −$6,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,109
• − Management: −$1,109
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$4,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centura Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3162950
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,438
• Composite: 50.37/100
• National rank: #1874
• State rank: #22 of 111 in NE

Livability — Dannebrog

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #15427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dannebrog, NE
• Population (ZIP): 768

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,621 people
• By 2030: 6,709 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 6,859 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 6,955 · +5.0%
• By 2075: 7,308 · +10.4%
• By 2100: 7,266 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.1% · R 80.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+58.8 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Current HPI: 200.6578
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 GIBOR
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,105 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.