3300 15th St W #64 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $166k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• Newer windows
• Updated flooring
• Newer interior walls

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER INTERIOR WALLS
• CEILING FANS IN ALL BEDROOMS
• TWO EVAPORATIVE COOLERS
• WALL-UNIT A C IN LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $720 (land lease community); Rent includes trash and water
• HOA & community: Part of an association with pool and community amenities; Park requires manager approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Located in Desert Oasis mobile home park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-story home; Mobile home on site
• Construction: Mobile home (34 ft x 180 ft); Year built per builder
• Exterior features: Community pool; Street lighting, sidewalks, and park in the neighborhood

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; Entry at ground level
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,345 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.51%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3300 W 15th St Spc 376	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-14%)	9mo	$142,400	$90	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $64,537
• Equity at exit: $73,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $168,615
• Equity at exit: $109,257

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,655/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 B St Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.5	1775	$1,542	$0.87	19d	1	0.86mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	10d	1	0.87mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	1d	1	0.87mi
2416 W Valley Vis Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1343	$2,250	$1.68	15d	1	1.07mi
2436 Horizon Dr Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1416	$4,500	$3.18	43d	1	1.10mi
2516 Starbrite Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,900	$1.88	1d	1	1.20mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	15d	1	1.21mi
2608 Starbrite Ave Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1542	$2,795	$1.81	1d	1	1.28mi
3317 Dale Ct Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$800	$0.60	1d	1	1.34mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	43d	1	1.49mi
1953 Marie Ave Apt A Rosamond, CA	4.0	3.0	1753	$2,550	$1.45	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $177,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $177,000 Active
16. 2025-03-14
    status Active
17. 2025-03-14
    historical
18. 2025-03-06
    status Pending Sale
19. 2024-11-01
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2023-09-01
    status Pending Sale
21. 2023-09-01
    historical
22. 2023-04-12
    listed $175,000 Active
23. 2022-07-18
    status Active
24. 2022-07-18
    historical
25. 2022-06-21
    status Pending Sale
26. 2022-06-10
    status Active
27. 2022-05-31
    status Pending Sale
28. 2022-05-06
    price $155,000
29. 2022-05-06
    price $155,000
30. 2022-03-16
    listed $163,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,655
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,415
• − Management: −$2,415
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable income: $6,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $7,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $177,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-12 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-06-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-05-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-06 Price Changed $155,000 AVMLS
• 2022-05-06 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $163,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.