129 N Fern Ave · Highland Springs, VA 23075

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1977 4,852 sqft lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 full bath beautiful rancher in an established eastern Henrico neighborhood. Spacious living room. Large eat in kitchen with new stylish wood look LVT Flooring. New smooth top stove and hood. Freshly painted throughout. Refinished wood floors in the living room and two bedrooms. New carpet in the third bedroom. Washer and dryer hook ups. Heat pump / central air. Screened porch for entertaining or relaxing after the work day. Convenient to the New Highland Springs High School, shopping and interstates for easy commutes. Take a look today.

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Screened porch
• New smooth top stove

Tags

• EASTERN HENRICO NEIGHBORHOOD
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• NEW SMOOTH TOP STOVE
• REFINISHED WOOD FLOORS
• SCREENED PORCH
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $235k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,767 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,305
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -0.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 N Cedar Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	960 (-2%)	1mo	$265,000	$276	89
115 N Elm Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$259	87
125 N Ash Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	955 (-3%)	1mo	$255,000	$267	84
16 N Juniper Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	1mo	$241,000	$246	81
204 N Grove Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,081 (+10%)	0mo	$215,000	$199	77
213 N Elm Ave	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,076 (+10%)	2mo	$261,000	$243	76
22 S Grove Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	960 (-2%)	3mo	$212,000	$221	75
118 N Linden Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+6%)	2mo	$266,400	$256	72
215 N Kalmia Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,084 (+11%)	0mo	$180,700	$167	68
10 W Washington St	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+14%)	2mo	$249,950	$223	63
214 N Pine Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	858 (-12%)	1mo	$217,000	$253	54
222 S Cedar Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	938 (-4%)	3mo	$270,000	$288	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-46,505
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-51,518
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23075

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,801/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $211,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-65	+0% $-131	+5% $-198	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-199	+0% $-131	+5% $-64	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-72	base $-131	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 N Elm Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,629	$1.94	44d	1	0.05mi
117 N Ivy Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,590	$1.62	4d	1	0.19mi
118 N Linden Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,795	$1.66	44d	1	0.33mi
239 N Mapleleaf Ave Henrico, VA	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	24d	1	0.48mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Unit J Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,395	$1.78	24d	1	0.57mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,345	$1.72	44d	1	0.58mi
901 E 9 Mile Rd Unit a Highland Springs, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,312	$1.64	22d	1	0.69mi
1000 E Washington St Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	888	$2,000	$2.25	4d	1	0.80mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	4d	1	0.98mi
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	2d	12	1.00mi
419 Roxana Rd Henrico, VA	3.0	1.5	1085	$2,050	$1.89	4d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $235,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    price $248,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 full bath beautiful rancher in an established eastern Henrico neighborhood. Spacious living room. Large eat in kitchen with new stylish wood look LVT Flooring. New smooth top stove and hood. Freshly painted throughout. Refinished wood floors in the living room and two bedrooms. New carpet in the third bedroom. Washer and dryer hook ups. Heat pump / central air. Screened porch for entertaining or relaxing after the work day. Convenient to the New Highland Springs High School, shopping and interstates for easy commutes. Take a look today.

15. 2026-03-31
    price $250,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 full bath beautiful rancher in an established eastern Henrico neighborhood. Spacious living room. Large eat in kitchen with new stylish wood look LVT Flooring. New smooth top stove and hood. Freshly painted throughout. Refinished wood floors in the living room and two bedrooms. New carpet in the third bedroom. Washer and dryer hook ups. Heat pump / central air. Screened porch for entertaining or relaxing after the work day. Convenient to the New Highland Springs High School, shopping and interstates for easy commutes. Take a look today.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $260,000 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 full bath beautiful rancher in an established eastern Henrico neighborhood. Spacious living room. Large eat in kitchen with new stylish wood look LVT Flooring. New smooth top stove and hood. Freshly painted throughout. Refinished wood floors in the living room and two bedrooms. New carpet in the third bedroom. Washer and dryer hook ups. Heat pump / central air. Screened porch for entertaining or relaxing after the work day. Convenient to the New Highland Springs High School, shopping and interstates for easy commutes. Take a look today.

17. 2026-03-16
    listed $250,000 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 full bath beautiful rancher in an established eastern Henrico neighborhood. Spacious living room. Large eat in kitchen with new stylish wood look LVT Flooring. New smooth top stove and hood. Freshly painted throughout. Refinished wood floors in the living room and two bedrooms. New carpet in the third bedroom. Washer and dryer hook ups. Heat pump / central air. Screened porch for entertaining or relaxing after the work day. Convenient to the New Highland Springs High School, shopping and interstates for easy commutes. Take a look today.

18. 2022-05-26
    status Pending
19. 2022-05-26
    historical
20. 2022-05-19
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2008-07-28
    soldstatus $149,950
22. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $149,950
23. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $149,950
24. 2008-04-20
    listed $149,950
25. 2008-04-20
    listed $149,950
26. 2006-08-29
    soldstatus $129,000
27. 2000-05-01
    soldstatus $45,160
28. 1995-07-01
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,801
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 8,347
• Household income: $55,567
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.15%
• Current HPI: 458.732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+355.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $248,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $260,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-05-26 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2022-05-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $195,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $149,950 Public Records
• 2008-07-25 Sold (MLS) $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-07-25 Sold (MLS) $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-04-20 Listed $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2008-04-20 Listed $149,950 CVRMLS
• 2006-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,160 Public Records
• 1995-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,801 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.