191 Hideaway Farms Rd · Edinburg, VA 22824

$274,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1960 0.53 ac lot $163/sqft · 19% below area Est $337k · 19% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm at 191 Hideaway Farms Rd! Situated on over half an acre with scenic creek frontage, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,680 square feet of living space and the added benefit of no HOA—providing flexibility to make the property your own. Inside, a spacious layout is complemented by two fireplaces, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for a cozy, woodland setting. The surrounding wooded acreage offers privacy and plenty of room to explore, garden, or simply enjoy peaceful outdoor living. Conveniently located in Edinburg, just minutes from I-81 and Route 11, this property combines rural charm with easy access to nearby amenities. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the close proximity to Taskers Gap and the George Washington National Forest, offering endless opportunities for recreation and adventure.

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (58.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#294 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,956 (58.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 20.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,610
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: -15.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $98,312
• Equity at exit: $246,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $329,266
• Equity at exit: $532,322

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22824

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $-798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $133,064

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-643	-5% $-720	+0% $-798	+5% $-875	+10% $-953
Rent	-10% $-888	-5% $-843	+0% $-798	+5% $-753	+10% $-708
Rate	-1.0pp $-660	-0.5pp $-728	base $-798	+0.5pp $-869	+1.0pp $-941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $274,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $284,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $294,000 Active 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Discover the charm at 191 Hideaway Farms Rd! Situated on over half an acre with scenic creek frontage, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,680 square feet of living space and the added benefit of no HOA—providing flexibility to make the property your own. Inside, a spacious layout is complemented by two fireplaces, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for a cozy, woodland setting. The surrounding wooded acreage offers privacy and plenty of room to explore, garden, or simply enjoy peaceful outdoor living. Conveniently located in Edinburg, just minutes from I-81 and Route 11, this property combines rural charm with easy access to nearby amenities. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the close proximity to Taskers Gap and the George Washington National Forest, offering endless opportunities for recreation and adventure.

17. 2026-03-31
    historical $294,000 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Discover the charm at 191 Hideaway Farms Rd! Situated on over half an acre with scenic creek frontage, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,680 square feet of living space and the added benefit of no HOA—providing flexibility to make the property your own. Inside, a spacious layout is complemented by two fireplaces, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for a cozy, woodland setting. The surrounding wooded acreage offers privacy and plenty of room to explore, garden, or simply enjoy peaceful outdoor living. Conveniently located in Edinburg, just minutes from I-81 and Route 11, this property combines rural charm with easy access to nearby amenities. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the close proximity to Taskers Gap and the George Washington National Forest, offering endless opportunities for recreation and adventure.

18. 2025-12-24
    historical
19. 2025-10-07
    price $299,000
20. 2025-06-05
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,247 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,149/yr (+$96/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$2,036
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$14,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,592
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Edinburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #10446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,061

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.98%
• Current HPI: 342.2967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $294,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $294,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.