533B Dartmoor Ct · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $189/sqft · 21% below area Est $158k · 21% under $312/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute ETON in great location. Extra parking on side of bldg. The condo has an upgraded front porch with new windows helping to insulate the room. It has a storage closet and carpet. The living room is large with a dining extension. The closet holds the dryer with plenty of room for storage with two shelves. Kitchen has upgraded appliances and counter. The long counter has a top extension for holding light dining. Upgraded washer & water heater in laundry. Bath has vanity, commode and tub/shower combo. Bedroom has 2 closets, separate with space for bureau in-between. One of the closets is for linen.

Key facts

• Extra parking
• Upgraded front porch
• Great location

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• EXTRA PARKING
• UPGRADED FRONT PORCH
• NEW WINDOWS
• STORAGE CLOSET
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 543 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.18%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,642
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -20.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
533 Dartmoor Ct Unit F	0.01mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	3mo	$103,000	$155	97
479 Dartmoor Ct Unit B	0.09mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	2mo	$133,000	$201	94
474E Thornbury Ct	0.15mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	10mo	$124,000	$187	84
474F Thornbury Ct	0.15mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	11mo	$110,000	$166	84
219 Buckingham Ct Unit E	0.36mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	1mo	$134,900	$203	82
434E Portsmouth Dr	0.36mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$226	82
472B Thornbury Ct	0.19mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	11mo	$135,000	$204	82
434F Portsmouth Dr	0.36mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	4mo	$149,000	$225	80
161A Gramercy Ct	0.43mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$196	77
160D Gramercy Ct	0.45mi	1/1.0	670 (+1%)	4mo	$123,000	$184	74
303A W Malvern Ct	0.57mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	3mo	$127,000	$192	70
318 Coventry Ct	0.56mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	4mo	$125,000	$189	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $679
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $28,017
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $129,000 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 33 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 543
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $911/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$312
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $361	+0% $326	+5% $291	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $255	+0% $326	+5% $397	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $358	base $326	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	18d	1	0.02mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	92d	1	0.36mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	42d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail $312/mo · $3,744/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $125,000 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $125,000 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $125,000 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 298 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 297 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 296 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 295 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 294 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 293 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 292 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 291 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 290 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 288 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 287 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 286 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 285 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 284 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 283 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 282 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 281 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 280 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 279 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $125,000 Active 278 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 277 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 275 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 273 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 272 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 269 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 268 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $130,000 Active 267 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $130,000 Active 266 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 264 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 263 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 260 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 259 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 258 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 255 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 254 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,101/yr (+$92/mo · 120.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$911
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − HOA: −$3,744
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$533
• After-tax cash flow: $3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $16,575–$29,835 screening

This home requires significant repairs and updates to its kitchen, roof, and windows. Upgrading the kitchen and replacing the windows will significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and potential leaks.
• Major Kitchen cabinetry — The kitchen cabinetry appears to be outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear to be outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Windows — The windows appear to be in poor condition with potential leaks and discoloration.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Replace kitchen cabinetry and flooring — Updating the kitchen cabinetry and flooring will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace windows — Replacing the windows will improve the home's energy efficiency and curb appeal, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Street Elem School F NJ #1,030/1,303 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Lakewood Middle School F NJ #376/431 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Lakewood High School F NJ #321/399 Nat'l #12,309/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+504.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $130,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $145,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $160,000 MOMLS
• 2016-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $911 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.