2815 Willows Rd #230 · Ilwaco, WA 98644

$375,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Condo · 272 Days on market

Built 2007 $317/sqft · at area comps Est $386k · at est. $435/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely stunning views! Fabulous unit with many upgrades including granite, stainless, jetted tub, patio, fireplace, garage and a sun deck. This is a second level 2 bedroom and is ready for your enjoyment. Excellent price.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Panoramic views
• Granite counters

Tags

• PACIFIC OCEAN VIEW
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• BEVERAGE REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $376k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long Beach Elementary School (221 students, 80% FRL); Hilltop Elementary School (236 students, 70% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 272 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $295,412 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 272 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $386,068
• List price: $375,500
• Delta: -2.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $49,130
• Equity at exit: $203,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $178,186
• Equity at exit: $343,830

Cash invested: $105,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98644

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,969
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$435
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,533

Max offer price $295,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-347	+0% $-453	+5% $-560	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-687	-5% $-570	+0% $-453	+5% $-336	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-358	base $-453	+0.5pp $-551	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,875
• Closing costs: $11,265
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $435 · $5,220/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $375,500 Pending 272 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $375,500 Active 270 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $375,500 Active 269 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $375,500 Active 268 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $375,500 Active 267 DOM
6. 2026-03-27
   price $375,500
7. 2025-09-06
   listed $385,500 Active
8. 2020-07-30
   soldstatus $300,000 Sold
9. 2020-06-08
   status Pending
10. 2019-09-10
    price $304,000
11. 2019-07-27
    listed $309,000 Active
12. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus $177,050 Sold 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Absolutely stunning views! Fabulous unit with many upgrades including granite, stainless, jetted tub, patio, fireplace, garage and a sun deck. This is a second level 2 bedroom and is ready for your enjoyment. Excellent price.

13. 2013-06-28
    historical
14. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $181,000 Sold
15. 2013-05-25
    status Pending 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Absolutely stunning views! Fabulous unit with many upgrades including granite, stainless, jetted tub, patio, fireplace, garage and a sun deck. This is a second level 2 bedroom and is ready for your enjoyment. Excellent price.

16. 2013-05-07
    status Pending
17. 2012-09-28
    price $184,500
18. 2012-09-27
    status Active
19. 2012-09-26
    listed $184,500 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Absolutely stunning views! Fabulous unit with many upgrades including granite, stainless, jetted tub, patio, fireplace, garage and a sun deck. This is a second level 2 bedroom and is ready for your enjoyment. Excellent price.

20. 2012-08-04
    historical Expired
21. 2008-08-25
    status
22. 2008-07-22
    historical
23. 2008-01-23
    listed $264,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,761 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,680 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,034
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$1,878
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,840
• − Management: −$2,840
• − HOA: −$5,220
• − Depreciation: −$10,924
• Taxable loss: −$11,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,878
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ilwaco

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 254.3311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+41.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $375,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed $385,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-30 Sold (MLS) $300,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-10 Price Changed $304,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-27 Listed $309,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-01 Sold (MLS) $177,050 RMLS
• 2013-06-28 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) $181,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-25 Pending — RMLS
• 2013-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-28 Price Changed $184,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-27 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-26 Listed $184,500 RMLS
• 2012-08-04 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-25 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-22 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-23 Listed $264,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,761 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.