10 Mill St · Arcade, NY 14009

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1890 6,955 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the historic village of Arcade, 10 Mill offers over 1,500 square feet of opportunity and potential. This home is ready for your personal touches and vision, whether you're looking for a primary residence, investment property, or renovation project. Conveniently situated near the town center, you'll enjoy close proximity to local shops, restaurants, parks, and everyday amenities while experiencing the charm and character of small-town living.

Key facts

• 6,955 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property; Asphalt roof; Wood siding exterior
• Construction: Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Open porch; Patio/porch area; Shed(s) / storage; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street / main thoroughfare; Lot dimensions approximately 65 x 107

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (two main-level bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Living/dining room; Walk-in pantry; Bedroom on main level; Has basement (partial, dirt floor)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.97%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,664
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Liberty St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,544 (-0%)	24mo	$130,500	$85	72
28 Water St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,507 (-3%)	20mo	$149,000	$99	66
34 Haskell Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,372 (-11%)	4mo	$176,000	$128	62
161 Park St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,695 (+10%)	10mo	$200,150	$118	58
125 Liberty St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (+13%)	6mo	$230,000	$132	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $36,097
• Equity at exit: $42,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $93,437
• Equity at exit: $75,588

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14009

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$1,016
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$585
• After-tax cash flow: $2,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Arcade

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcade, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 281.8451
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,132 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.