13925 Walnut · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95423

$177,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land · 120 Days on market

Built 1976 4,792 sqft lot $154/sqft · 90% above area $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home was used as a rental for many years. Now it's time to sell! 2 BD-2 BA manufactured home. Laminate flooring throughout. Kitchen has a small eating area, brand new dishwasher and garbage disposal. Walk in shower in Primary bath. Primary bedroom has built-in drawers. Main hallway bath has shoer over tub. There's a separate laundry room too. Dining area has a built-in hutch and built-in shelving in living room. 2 car carport, fenced yard and storage shed in back.

Key facts

• Built-in drawers
• Laminate flooring
• Garbage disposal

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• BRAND NEW DISHWASHER
• GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• WALK IN SHOWER
• BUILT-IN DRAWERS
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $178k implies a 534% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,525 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,547
• List price: $177,500
• Delta: 89.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $91
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $37,145
• Equity at exit: $15,347

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95423

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $956/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $177,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $504	+0% $454	+5% $403	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $375	+0% $454	+5% $533	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $499	base $454	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12755 Blue Heron Ct Clearlake Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	1134	$2,000	$1.76	44d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $177,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $177,500 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,500 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,500 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,500 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,500 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $177,500 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,500 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $177,500 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $177,500 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $177,500 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,500 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,500 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,500 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,500 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,500 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $177,500 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-02-21
    listed $177,500 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Home was used as a rental for many years. Now it's time to sell! 2 BD-2 BA manufactured home. Laminate flooring throughout. Kitchen has a small eating area, brand new dishwasher and garbage disposal. Walk in shower in Primary bath. Primary bedroom has built-in drawers. Main hallway bath has shoer over tub. There's a separate laundry room too. Dining area has a built-in hutch and built-in shelving in living room. 2 car carport, fenced yard and storage shed in back.

19. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus $28,000
20. 1989-06-06
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $956 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 41.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$956
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable income: $2,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $4,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,432

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.32%
• Current HPI: 178.9812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+810.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $177,500 CRMLS
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $956 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.