28833 Joe Scott Dr · Ardmore, AL 35739

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2018 Est $248k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, THE TRIPLE WINDOWS IN FAMILY AND DINING ALLOW NATURAL LIGHT TO FLOW, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, ISOLATED MASTER SUITE W/DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE SHOWER, STAINLESS APPLIANCES, AND SO MUCH MORE THE PERFECT COMBINATION: ADAMS HOMES QUALITY, MADISON COUNTY SCHOOLS, AND USDA RURAL DEVELOPMENT LOAN ( 100% FINANCING )!! OUR FULL-BRICK HOMES ARE LOADED WITH STANDARD AMENITIES AND HAVE AN EXCELLENT 1-2-10 WARRANTY !! CLOSING COSTS ARE PAID WITH USE OF PREFERRED LENDERS !! CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE AN APPOINTMENT ***Ask About Current Specials***

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Ardmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#120 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Hill Elementary School (math 33% / reading 52%, grade F, #209 of 627 statewide, top 34%, 578 students, 48% FRL); Ardmore High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 993 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,044 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,249
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28833 Joe Scott Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$163	91
28226 Odie Scott Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+2%)	12mo	$239,900	$155	82
28106 Cedar Hill Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+2%)	13mo	$289,000	$185	79
28821 Joe Scott Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+15%)	1mo	$280,000	$160	68
28484 Cedar Hill Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+2%)	15mo	$243,500	$157	67
28348 Cedar Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+7%)	22mo	$269,900	$166	58
28309 Cedar Hill Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-15%)	13mo	$230,000	$177	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $119,356
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $362,207
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35739

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $206,299

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-150	+0% $-219	+5% $-288	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-281	+0% $-219	+5% $-157	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-157	base $-219	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $245,000 Active
3. 2026-03-19
   soldstatus $170,000
4. 2021-11-01
   soldstatus $182,300
5. 2018-06-01
   listed $152,284 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, THE TRIPLE WINDOWS IN FAMILY AND DINING ALLOW NATURAL LIGHT TO FLOW, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, ISOLATED MASTER SUITE W/DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE SHOWER, STAINLESS APPLIANCES, AND SO MUCH MORE THE PERFECT COMBINATION: ADAMS HOMES QUALITY, MADISON COUNTY SCHOOLS, AND USDA RURAL DEVELOPMENT LOAN ( 100% FINANCING )!! OUR FULL-BRICK HOMES ARE LOADED WITH STANDARD AMENITIES AND HAVE AN EXCELLENT 1-2-10 WARRANTY !! CLOSING COSTS ARE PAID WITH USE OF PREFERRED LENDERS !! CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE AN APPOINTMENT ***Ask About Current Specials***

6. 2018-05-31
   soldstatus $152,284 569-char remark

   Show marketing remark (569 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, THE TRIPLE WINDOWS IN FAMILY AND DINING ALLOW NATURAL LIGHT TO FLOW, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, ISOLATED MASTER SUITE W/DOUBLE VANITY, SEPARATE SHOWER, STAINLESS APPLIANCES, AND SO MUCH MORE THE PERFECT COMBINATION: ADAMS HOMES QUALITY, MADISON COUNTY SCHOOLS, AND USDA RURAL DEVELOPMENT LOAN ( 100% FINANCING )!! OUR FULL-BRICK HOMES ARE LOADED WITH STANDARD AMENITIES AND HAVE AN EXCELLENT 1-2-10 WARRANTY !! CLOSING COSTS ARE PAID WITH USE OF PREFERRED LENDERS !! CALL TODAY TO SCHEDULE AN APPOINTMENT ***Ask About Current Specials***

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$225/yr (+$19/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $-919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Limestone County
• NCES district ID: 0102100
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,972
• Composite: 28.09/100
• National rank: #6829
• State rank: #52 of 129 in AL

Livability — Ardmore

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #12595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,056

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,441 people
• By 2030: 121,272 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 140,705 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 159,069 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 202,231 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 230,608 · +106.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.9) · D 27.5% · R 71.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.9pp · 2024: -43.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.9 2020: R+42.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.94%
• Current HPI: 342.3628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+60.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — VMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $245,000 VMLS
• 2026-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $182,300 Public Records
• 2018-06-01 Listed $152,284 VMLS
• 2018-05-31 Sold (MLS) $152,284 VMLS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.