4929 Monarch Oak Ln · Texas City, TX 77591

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1978 0.25 ac lot $87/sqft · 11% below area Est $190k · 11% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a flex room upon entry and a separate dining area. Situated on a spacious 10,987 sq ft cul-de-sac lot. This is an estate property with limited property information available. Home will need some interior TLC, making it a great opportunity for a starter home or rental investment. No HOA and located in a desirable area. Showings begin Saturday 04/09/2026 —don’t miss out on this opportunity.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Flex room
• No hoa

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• NO HOA
• DESIRABLE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (living area on slab)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1978
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Simms El (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 475 students, 89% FRL); La Marque H S (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,342 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 647 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 66% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,500
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -10.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5006 Live Oak Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,818 (-6%)	10mo	$224,900	$124	71
5110 Royal Oak Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,025 (+4%)	15mo	$159,000	$79	70
328 S Oak St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,786 (-8%)	6mo	$139,000	$78	68
222 S Willow St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,732 (-11%)	18mo	$99,900	$58	57
6026 Diamond Ct	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,012 (+4%)	4mo	$145,000	$72	50
524 Avenue A	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,778 (-8%)	2mo	$249,000	$140	45
201 Oak St	0.40mi	3/1.0	2,179 (+12%)	20mo	$203,699	$93	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,365
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,786
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77591

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$493 /mo · $5,911/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,919

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $147	+0% $99	+5% $51	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $18	+0% $99	+5% $179	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $142	base $99	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 N Pecan Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.35mi
203 Beatrice St La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,395	$1.07	25d	1	0.42mi
309 S Bell Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	0.57mi
1230 Kirsten St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,660	$0.97	4d	1	1.22mi
1029 Sycamore St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1928	$1,695	$0.88	16d	1	1.23mi
1006 E Camp Cir La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.37mi
1401 Austin St La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	1542	$2,400	$1.56	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    status Active 443-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    status Pending 443-char remark
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $180,000 Active 443-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,911 · $493/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,911 · $493/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$5,911
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,294
• Household income: $68,593
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.63%
• Current HPI: 247.1905
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,911 · +35.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.