7381 N Sandario Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot Est $253k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DOUBLE WIDE ON AN ACRE LOT IN DESIRABLE AVRA VALLEY. SPLIT FLOOR PLAN, LARGE KITCHEN, TWO FULL BATHS, NO CARPETING, NEW ROOF FIVE YEARS AGO, COVERED PATIO, EXTRA STORAGE.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Shed for storage
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• SHED FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Phone connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain-link fencing; Shed(s); East/West exposure; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.43%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7145 N Picture Pl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-0%)	3mo	$200,000	$130	75
11873 W Ina Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-2%)	2mo	$248,000	$164	74
7365 N Coltsfoot Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	18mo	$268,000	$184	72
7140 N Carless Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	6mo	$258,000	$165	69
12285 W Windchime Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	5mo	$260,000	$169	67
11982 W Desert Wren Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$153,500	$107	65
11449 W Anthony Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	13mo	$275,000	$175	63
7080 N Guthrie Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$245,000	$170	61
11610 W Massingale Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+9%)	20mo	$275,000	$164	47
7790 N Prorodeo Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	12mo	$262,500	$162	46
7940 N Desert Quail Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+4%)	13mo	$300,000	$188	41
12257 W Cameo Mary Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,346 (-12%)	20mo	$200,000	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,875
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,243
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $427	+0% $374	+5% $320	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $297	+0% $374	+5% $450	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $422	base $374	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6820 N Blue Blvd Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	11d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 329-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$344
• After-tax cash flow: $4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+406.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-16 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-13 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-08 Price Changed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-21 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-19 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-03-31 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $76,325 Public Records
• 2015-05-15 Sold (MLS) $76,325 MLSSAZ
• 2015-05-14 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2015-04-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-23 Price Changed $83,900 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-16 Price Changed $84,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-09 Price Changed $84,100 MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-02 Price Changed $84,200 MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-23 Price Changed $84,300 MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-16 Price Changed $84,400 MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-09 Price Changed $84,500 MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-02 Price Changed $84,600 MLSSAZ
• 2015-01-28 Price Changed $84,700 MLSSAZ
• 2015-01-20 Price Changed $84,800 MLSSAZ
• 2014-12-01 Listed $84,900 MLSSAZ
• 2013-12-26 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2013-12-04 Listed $89,900 MLSSAZ
• 2013-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-14 Sold (MLS) $32,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-03-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2013-02-28 Listed $37,500 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.