133 Shadow Hill Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$209,500

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1991 4,791 sqft lot $161/sqft · 27% below area Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-family home includes multiple bedrooms, bathroom(s), a living area, and a kitchen designed for everyday use. The property also features a yard and exterior space. Located within close proximity to local schools, shopping, and major roadways, the property offers access to nearby amenities. Offered AS-IS, making it suitable for buyers considering its current condition. Property is under court-ordered receivership; a copy of the order is available.

Key facts

• Yard
• Kitchen
• Living area

Tags

• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN
• YARD
• EXTERIOR SPACE
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,930 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.76%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,193
• List price: $209,500
• Delta: 2.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Shadow Hill Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+3%)	4mo	$209,900	$156	82
139 Shadow Hill Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+6%)	16mo	$209,900	$153	68
115 Haley Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	14mo	$209,900	$175	64
737 Hoy Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,273 (-2%)	10mo	$150,000	$118	57
506 Old Rice Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+4%)	15mo	$229,000	$169	54
105 Summit Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+4%)	23mo	$229,900	$171	49
114 Harbor Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+4%)	17mo	$230,000	$170	47
121 Summit Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (-13%)	12mo	$205,000	$181	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,781
• Equity at exit: $31,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $51,234
• Equity at exit: $18,114

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $209,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $683	+0% $624	+5% $565	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $528	+0% $624	+5% $720	+10% $817
Rate	-1.0pp $729	-0.5pp $677	base $624	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Dave Brown Rd Canton, MS	2.0	2.5	1790	$2,400	$1.34	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,500 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,500 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,500 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,500 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,500 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,500 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,500 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,500 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,500 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,500 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,500 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $209,500 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    This single-family home includes multiple bedrooms, bathroom(s), a living area, and a kitchen designed for everyday use. The property also features a yard and exterior space. Located within close proximity to local schools, shopping, and major roadways, the property offers access to nearby amenities. Offered AS-IS, making it suitable for buyers considering its current condition. Property is under court-ordered receivership; a copy of the order is available.

16. 2026-03-23
    historical
17. 2026-03-04
    price $209,500
18. 2026-01-19
    price $223,500
19. 2025-12-01
    listed $228,500 Active
20. 2021-10-08
    historical
21. 2021-10-02
    historical
22. 2020-07-29
    soldstatus
23. 2015-03-02
    listed $109,900
24. 2011-08-16
    soldstatus
25. 2011-03-31
    listed $123,500
26. 2010-09-29
    listed $129,000
27. 2008-07-22
    soldstatus
28. 2008-06-30
    soldstatus
29. 2007-09-25
    listed $122,500
30. 2004-06-23
    soldstatus
31. 1990-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,655 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable income: $4,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $6,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+71.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $209,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $209,500 MLSU
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $223,500 MLSU
• 2025-12-01 Listed $228,500 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-02 Listed $109,900 MLSU
• 2011-08-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2011-03-31 Listed $123,500 MLSU
• 2010-09-29 Listed $129,000 MLSU
• 2008-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-09-25 Listed $122,500 MLSU
• 2004-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.