Bryan Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$404,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,465 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bryan floor plan is a beautifully designed single-story home offering four bedrooms and two bathrooms, perfectly blending style and functionality. This layout caters to a variety of lifestyles, providing a spacious and comfortable living environment for families or those who enjoy having extra space. The heart of the home is the open-concept living area, where the kitchen seamlessly integrates with the dining and family rooms. With modern finishes and plenty of counter space, the kitchen is ideal for everything from daily meals to entertaining guests. The owner's suite is a retreat, complete with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet that ensures ample storage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 123 days

🏗️ New construction. The $404,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $522,340.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $405k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (52.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (58.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.5% in Castroville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 525 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,509 (58.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.70%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 25.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $522,340
• List price: $404,990
• Delta: -22.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Annette Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,334 (-5%)	2mo	$474,990	$204	87
169 Mallorys Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,536 (+3%)	2mo	$434,990	$172	84
171 Heidi Hl	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,492 (+1%)	0mo	$369,990	$148	82
133 Heidi Hl	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,369 (-4%)	1mo	$399,990	$169	80
313 Ainslie St W	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,358 (-4%)	2mo	$429,990	$182	80
151 Annette Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,653 (+8%)	0mo	$497,990	$188	77
166 Mallorys Way	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,614 (+6%)	2mo	$425,990	$163	77
110 Katie Ct	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,722 (+10%)	2mo	$474,990	$175	76
119 Mallorys Way	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,303 (-7%)	4mo	$349,990	$152	73
105 Heidi Hl	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,614 (+6%)	2mo	$399,990	$153	73
283 W Ainslie St	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,119 (-14%)	0mo	$349,990	$165	64
242 James	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,791 (+13%)	2mo	$675,000	$242	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-229,739
• Equity at exit: $77,883

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.64×
• Total profit: $-386,817
• Equity at exit: $45,162

Cash invested: $146,255 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $499,990 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 525
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,739
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$653 /mo · $7,835/yr
• Insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-2,279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,569

Max offer price $192,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,918	-5% $-2,098	+0% $-2,279	+5% $-2,459	+10% $-2,640
Rent	-10% $-2,412	-5% $-2,345	+0% $-2,279	+5% $-2,212	+10% $-2,145
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,016	-0.5pp $-2,146	base $-2,279	+0.5pp $-2,414	+1.0pp $-2,552

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,585
• Closing costs: $15,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $404,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Bryan plan)Located at 112 Megans Ln, Castroville TX 78009
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (Plan: Bryan)
• Exterior features: New construction homeLiving area approximately 2465

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen appliances (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction, Plan: Bryan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $404,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $404,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $404,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $404,990 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $404,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $404,990 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $404,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $404,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $404,990 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $404,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $404,990 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $404,990 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $404,990 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $404,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $404,990 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $404,990 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $404,990 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $404,990 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $404,990 Active 99 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $404,990 Active 98 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $404,990 Active 97 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $404,990 Active 96 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $404,990 Active 95 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $404,990 Active 94 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $404,990 Active 92 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $404,990 Active 91 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $404,990 Active 90 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $404,990 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $404,990 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $404,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $404,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $404,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $404,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $404,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $404,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $404,990 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $404,990 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $404,990 Active 76 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $404,990 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $404,990 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $404,990 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $404,990 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $404,990 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $404,990 Active 64 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $404,990 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $404,990 Active 62 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $404,990 Active 59 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $404,990 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,990 Active 57 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,990 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,259
• − Property taxes: −$7,835
• − Insurance: −$2,612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$15,195
• Taxable loss: −$37,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,325–$36,975 screening

This single-story home in Castroville, TX, offers a good condition with modern finishes and ample space. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance the bathroom's appeal and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Middle C- TX #400/1,662 Nat'l #3,953/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $404,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Bryan plan)Located at 112 Megans Ln, Castroville TX 78009
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (Plan: Bryan)
• Exterior features: New construction homeLiving area approximately 2465

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen appliances (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction, Plan: Bryan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not provided)