561 Dover Ct · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352

$385,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1982 3,050 sqft lot $207/sqft · 29% below area Est $544k · 29% under $93/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the appeal of mountain living with this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence offering 1,862 square feet in one of Southern California’s most sought-after resort communities. Ideally suited for a primary residence, luxury vacation home, or investment opportunity, this property offers the versatility today’s buyers are looking for. Just a short drive from the city, enjoy the lifestyle Lake Arrowhead and the surrounding mountain communities are known for, with year-round recreation including boating, hiking, dining, seasonal events, and weekend escapes. Whether you are looking to build memories with family or expand your real estate portfolio, this home presents an exceptional opportunity in a high-demand destination.

Key facts

• 3,050 sq ft lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 565 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,472 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $544,132
• List price: $385,000
• Delta: -29.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 Oakmont Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	1,680 (-10%)	1mo	$419,000	$249	74
501 Wellsley Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-2%)	5mo	$453,000	$248	70
416 Klamath Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-6%)	5mo	$625,000	$358	66
813 Greenbriar Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,916 (+3%)	0mo	$925,000	$483	59
664 Circle	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (-8%)	2mo	$455,000	$265	58
28730 Potomac	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,077 (+12%)	0mo	$885,000	$426	55
156 Fremont Rd	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,780 (-4%)	5mo	$450,000	$253	54
28443 Altamont Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,592 (-14%)	1mo	$625,000	$393	49
338 Mittry	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-13%)	3mo	$525,000	$325	46
163 Bret Harte Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-8%)	3mo	$835,000	$487	46
717 Crest Ests	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,056 (+10%)	0mo	$602,999	$293	46
252 Crest Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-12%)	2mo	$815,000	$498	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-78,228
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-88,273
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92352

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,450/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$93
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,451

Max offer price $340,819

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-141	+0% $-250	+5% $-359	+10% $-468
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-374	+0% $-250	+5% $-126	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-152	base $-250	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
641 Virginia Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,300	$1.14	44d	1	0.25mi
359 Kuffel Canyon Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,999	$1.74	24d	1	0.27mi
855 Lake Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	3.0	1422	$2,800	$1.97	44d	1	0.40mi
400 Cottage Grove Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$5,700	$2.28	44d	1	0.70mi
233 Corona Cir Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,900	$1.42	44d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $93 · $1,116/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $385,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Discover the appeal of mountain living with this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence offering 1,862 square feet in one of Southern California’s most sought-after resort communities. Ideally suited for a primary residence, luxury vacation home, or investment opportunity, this property offers the versatility today’s buyers are looking for. Just a short drive from the city, enjoy the lifestyle Lake Arrowhead and the surrounding mountain communities are known for, with year-round recreation including boating, hiking, dining, seasonal events, and weekend escapes. Whether you are looking to build memories with family or expand your real estate portfolio, this home presents an exceptional opportunity in a high-demand destination.

16. 2025-12-08
    price $475,000
17. 2025-10-02
    price $499,998
18. 2025-06-18
    price $499,999
19. 2025-03-14
    listed $534,988 Active
20. 2025-03-04
    historical
21. 2025-01-21
    status Active
22. 2024-11-01
    listed $534,999 Active
23. 2024-10-01
    historical
24. 2024-06-13
    price $589,900
25. 2024-04-06
    listed $599,900 Active
26. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $415,000 Closed Sale
27. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $415,000
28. 2021-01-26
    status Pending Sale
29. 2021-01-26
    status Active
30. 2021-01-18
    listed $415,000 Active
31. 2021-01-13
    historical $415,000
32. 2020-08-26
    soldstatus $245,000
33. 1986-07-16
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,450 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,450 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,450
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,009
• − Management: −$3,009
• − HOA: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$9,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 6,246
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,246
• Household income: $105,753
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 5% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.32%
• Current HPI: 271.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1825.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $385,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $475,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $499,998 CRMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $499,999 CRMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $534,988 CRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $534,999 CRMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $589,900 CRMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed $599,900 CRMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $415,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $415,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-01-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-01-18 Listed $415,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-13 Coming Soon $415,000 CRMLS
• 2020-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,450 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.