2009 Melvin Rd · Pearl, MS 39208

$160,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1968 9,147 sqft lot $101/sqft · 7% below area Est $195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two homes, one lot. Enjoy the main house for your family and rent the guest house. This could also be a great property for a family with parents or adult kids at home. Home based business? The guest house could be the perfect working office space. This property with a main house and a separate guest house is being offered as-is and presents a strong investment opportunity. The main home features a spacious living room with a brick fireplace and tall windows, multiple bedrooms, and kitchen. Bathrooms include both vintage and practical designs, with some areas requiring updates. Several rooms have stripped or unfinished flooring, providing a blank slate for customization. Additional details such as built-in shelving, and ceiling fans add functionality throughout. The separate guest house positioned in the back yard for privacy, includes a full kitchen, bath, and open bedroom/living space. With a mix of completed updates and areas in need of repair, this property offers investors or buyers the chance to add value through renovation and personalization.

Key facts

• Tall windows
• Full kitchen
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• SEPARATE GUEST HOUSE
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• TALL WINDOWS
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• CEILING FANS
• FULL KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.73%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,542
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -17.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Cloverdale Pl	0.17mi	4/1.5	1,794 (+13%)	4mo	$209,900	$117	66
116 Oak Park Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,749 (+10%)	0mo	$239,999	$137	55
365 Gatewood Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,785 (+12%)	10mo	$189,900	$106	45
203 Barrow St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	11mo	$180,000	$120	39
2615 Pine Circle Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,477 (-7%)	16mo	$119,900	$81	36
415 Boehle St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-13%)	13mo	$160,000	$116	34
434 Sarah St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,359 (-14%)	8mo	$189,900	$140	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,487
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $25,823
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $131	+0% $86	+5% $41	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $10	+0% $86	+5% $163	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $127	base $86	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2144 Napoleon Ave Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,550	$1.23	44d	1	0.70mi
200 Colony Park Dr Pearl, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,790	$1.55	14d	18	0.71mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1069-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

   Two homes, one lot. Enjoy the main house for your family and rent the guest house. This could also be a great property for a family with parents or adult kids at home. Home based business? The guest house could be the perfect working office space. This property with a main house and a separate guest house is being offered as-is and presents a strong investment opportunity. The main home features a spacious living room with a brick fireplace and tall windows, multiple bedrooms, and kitchen. Bathrooms include both vintage and practical designs, with some areas requiring updates. Several rooms have stripped or unfinished flooring, providing a blank slate for customization. Additional details such as built-in shelving, and ceiling fans add functionality throughout. The separate guest house positioned in the back yard for privacy, includes a full kitchen, bath, and open bedroom/living space. With a mix of completed updates and areas in need of repair, this property offers investors or buyers the chance to add value through renovation and personalization.

2. 2026-02-15
   listed $160,000 Active 1069-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1069 chars)

   Two homes, one lot. Enjoy the main house for your family and rent the guest house. This could also be a great property for a family with parents or adult kids at home. Home based business? The guest house could be the perfect working office space. This property with a main house and a separate guest house is being offered as-is and presents a strong investment opportunity. The main home features a spacious living room with a brick fireplace and tall windows, multiple bedrooms, and kitchen. Bathrooms include both vintage and practical designs, with some areas requiring updates. Several rooms have stripped or unfinished flooring, providing a blank slate for customization. Additional details such as built-in shelving, and ceiling fans add functionality throughout. The separate guest house positioned in the back yard for privacy, includes a full kitchen, bath, and open bedroom/living space. With a mix of completed updates and areas in need of repair, this property offers investors or buyers the chance to add value through renovation and personalization.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$5,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-15 Listed $160,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.