105 Cherokee Dr · Auburndale, FL 33823

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1998 9,940 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Auburndale! This charming home has vaulted ceilings and a roomy master suite! Over 1,000 square feet of living space! Sitting on almost a quarter of an acre, this one is priced to move! See it today! Property sold "AsIs".

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Quick access to i-4
• Big back yard

Tags

• BIG BACK YARD
• COZY FRONT PORCH
• MOVE-IN READY
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-4

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property, single-family; Living area about 1,058 square feet
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; No water source listed; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Facing east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 142

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; One-story layout
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-645/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $245k implies a 512% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,073 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,788
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,280
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $235,504

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,810	$1.43	3d	1	0.05mi
161 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,895	$1.57	23d	1	0.17mi
132 Eagle Point Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,805	$1.46	3d	1	0.17mi
217 Meadow Vue Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,785	$1.31	23d	1	0.18mi
166 Diamond Ridge Blvd Auburndale, FL	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,755	$1.38	23d	1	0.43mi
332 Cascara Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,995	$1.54	3d	1	0.99mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	23d	1	1.21mi
543 Florida 559 Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	1.31mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 2014-02-07
    soldstatus $40,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Auburndale! This charming home has vaulted ceilings and a roomy master suite! Over 1,000 square feet of living space! Sitting on almost a quarter of an acre, this one is priced to move! See it today! Property sold "AsIs".

17. 2013-05-20
    listed $59,200 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Auburndale! This charming home has vaulted ceilings and a roomy master suite! Over 1,000 square feet of living space! Sitting on almost a quarter of an acre, this one is priced to move! See it today! Property sold "AsIs".

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+313.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-07 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-20 Listed $59,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,685 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.