1940 Allison Rd · Johnson City, TN 37686

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1958 5.10 ac lot $223/sqft · 32% below area Est $258k · 42% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on approximately 5 peaceful, wooded acres, 1940 Allison Rd in Piney Flats offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of land filled with history, heart, and potential. This one-owner home has been the backdrop for decades of cherished memories quiet mornings, family gatherings, and a life well-lived. While the home is in need of renovation, the true value lies in the land itself. Mature trees provide privacy and a serene setting, making it an ideal canvas for your vision whether that's restoring the existing home, building new, or creating a private retreat tucked away from the hustle and bustle. Conveniently located just minutes from Boone Lake, you'll enjoy easy access to some o

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Private retreat
• Mature trees

Tags

• PEACEFUL WOODED ACRES
• MATURE TREES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5.1-acre lot; Zoning: A 1

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Residential property in need of repair (fixer)
• Construction: Wood siding and plaster construction; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Steep slope, wooded lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Basement with block foundation (unfinished); Total of 5 rooms; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary Hughes School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 339 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East High School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #208 of 332 statewide, top 63%, 849 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,485
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -41.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,660
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,692
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37686

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   price $150,000 1077-char remark
7. 2026-04-30
   price $180,000 1077-char remark
8. 2026-04-25
   listed $200,000 Active 1077-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$640/yr (+$53/mo · 150.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$615
• After-tax cash flow: $4,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County
• NCES district ID: 4703990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,263
• Composite: 17.66/100
• National rank: #9030
• State rank: #109 of 139 in TN

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #3349

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 99,926
• Population (ZIP): 9,149

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.96%
• Current HPI: 306.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $150,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $180,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $200,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.