6221 E Hibiscus Ave · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Townhouse public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1983 $169/sqft · 11% below area Est $270k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, convenience, and NO HOA make this 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome an incredible opportunity just minutes from the marinas and the beautiful beaches of Panama City Beach. Whether you enjoy boating, fishing, or relaxing on the sugar-white sand, you'll love how close everything is from this well-located property. The home features a spacious layout with three large bedrooms upstairs along with a full bathroom, while the main level offers an open kitchen, dining area, oversized living room, and a second full bathroom--perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Step outside to a large backyard with a laundry room conveniently located just off the back patio. The property is connected to a shared septic system that was replaced in 2018/2019. This property would make an excellent primary residence, second home, or short-term rental investment thanks to its location near beaches, marinas, restaurants, and entertainment. Recent updates include both bathrooms remodeled, new downstairs flooring, fresh interior paint, Riverside doors throughout, new 1x6 baseboards downstairs, a brand new water heater, a 2019 roof, and a 2019 HVAC system, offering peace of mind for the next owner.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• New water heater
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• OPEN KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• NEW DOWNSTAIRS FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $184k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,561 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,921
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -11.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6225 S Lagoon Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	2mo	$335,000	$231	71
6135 N Lagoon Dr #104	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,255 (-12%)	2mo	$329,900	$263	59
6323 Causeway Rd #3	0.19mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,368 (-4%)	23mo	$302,000	$221	59
5801 Thomas Dr Unit 121	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-3%)	1mo	$495,000	$361	58
6304 Thomas Dr Unit U7	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,332 (-6%)	5mo	$400,000	$300	44
5812 Beach Dr Unit B	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-11%)	7mo	$370,000	$294	44
6901 N Lagoon Dr #20	0.57mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,230 (-13%)	14mo	$250,000	$203	32
6901 N Lagoon 14 Dr #14	0.57mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,230 (-13%)	16mo	$305,000	$248	31
5515 Palm Way Unit A & B	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-14%)	21mo	$290,000	$238	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,351
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,644
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,345/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $170	+0% $102	+5% $34	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $19	+0% $102	+5% $185	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $163	base $102	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	23d	1	0.07mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	23d	1	0.13mi
5818 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	1.0	1190	$1,752	$1.47	23d	1	0.48mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	23d	1	0.55mi
3704 Tiki Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	23d	1	0.55mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	23d	1	0.61mi
6320 Beach Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,800	$1.72	23d	1	0.70mi
5402 Pinetree Ave Unit 1447170P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$6,216	$3.83	23d	1	0.71mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	23d	1	0.73mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.84mi
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.84mi
5111 Flint Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,350	$1.32	23d	1	0.88mi
5104 Gulf Dr Unit B Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	23d	1	1.04mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	23d	1	1.06mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	1.08mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	1.14mi
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	23d	1	1.24mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	23d	1	1.28mi
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	1.35mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   price $239,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    price $249,900 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    Location, convenience, and NO HOA make this 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome an incredible opportunity just minutes from the marinas and the beautiful beaches of Panama City Beach. Whether you enjoy boating, fishing, or relaxing on the sugar-white sand, you'll love how close everything is from this well-located property. The home features a spacious layout with three large bedrooms upstairs along with a full bathroom, while the main level offers an open kitchen, dining area, oversized living room, and a second full bathroom--perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Step outside to a large backyard with a laundry room conveniently located just off the back patio. The property is connected to a shared septic system that was replaced in 2018/2019. This property would make an excellent primary residence, second home, or short-term rental investment thanks to its location near beaches, marinas, restaurants, and entertainment. Recent updates include both bathrooms remodeled, new downstairs flooring, fresh interior paint, Riverside doors throughout, new 1x6 baseboards downstairs, a brand new water heater, a 2019 roof, and a 2019 HVAC system, offering peace of mind for the next owner.

13. 2026-05-07
    price $259,900 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    Location, convenience, and NO HOA make this 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome an incredible opportunity just minutes from the marinas and the beautiful beaches of Panama City Beach. Whether you enjoy boating, fishing, or relaxing on the sugar-white sand, you'll love how close everything is from this well-located property. The home features a spacious layout with three large bedrooms upstairs along with a full bathroom, while the main level offers an open kitchen, dining area, oversized living room, and a second full bathroom--perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Step outside to a large backyard with a laundry room conveniently located just off the back patio. The property is connected to a shared septic system that was replaced in 2018/2019. This property would make an excellent primary residence, second home, or short-term rental investment thanks to its location near beaches, marinas, restaurants, and entertainment. Recent updates include both bathrooms remodeled, new downstairs flooring, fresh interior paint, Riverside doors throughout, new 1x6 baseboards downstairs, a brand new water heater, a 2019 roof, and a 2019 HVAC system, offering peace of mind for the next owner.

14. 2026-03-10
    listed $269,900 Active 1203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1203 chars)

    Location, convenience, and NO HOA make this 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome an incredible opportunity just minutes from the marinas and the beautiful beaches of Panama City Beach. Whether you enjoy boating, fishing, or relaxing on the sugar-white sand, you'll love how close everything is from this well-located property. The home features a spacious layout with three large bedrooms upstairs along with a full bathroom, while the main level offers an open kitchen, dining area, oversized living room, and a second full bathroom--perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Step outside to a large backyard with a laundry room conveniently located just off the back patio. The property is connected to a shared septic system that was replaced in 2018/2019. This property would make an excellent primary residence, second home, or short-term rental investment thanks to its location near beaches, marinas, restaurants, and entertainment. Recent updates include both bathrooms remodeled, new downstairs flooring, fresh interior paint, Riverside doors throughout, new 1x6 baseboards downstairs, a brand new water heater, a 2019 roof, and a 2019 HVAC system, offering peace of mind for the next owner.

15. 2022-07-04
    historical
16. 2022-06-18
    price $309,900
17. 2022-06-15
    listed $329,900 Active
18. 2021-12-14
    historical
19. 2021-04-13
    soldstatus $184,000
20. 2021-04-12
    soldstatus $184,000
21. 2020-08-22
    listed $189,000
22. 1998-04-28
    listed $78,900
23. 1996-01-01
    soldstatus $53,400
24. 1983-10-01
    soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,345 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,345
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$2,838
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $1,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+461.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-07-04 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-06-18 Price Changed $309,900 CPARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Listed $329,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $184,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-12 Sold (MLS) $184,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-08-22 Listed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-04-28 Listed $78,900 CPARMLS
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,400 Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,345 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.