2883 Madison Ave · Covington, KY 41015

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1948 2,538 sqft lot Est $224k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 4br Family Home With Many Upgrades * Hdwd Flrs * Updated Kitchen Newer Furnace/Ca * Family Rm * 2 Baths * Driveway * Lots Of Home * Priced To Sell * Call Karen At 578-3982.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Lower-level space
• New roof

Tags

• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LOWER-LEVEL SPACE
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half levels; Existing structure; Built in 1948
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Chain link fencing; City street frontage; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 27 x 92 x 27 x 96

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary Bedroom (14 x 10); Bedroom 2 (15 x 9); Bedroom 3 (14 x 9); Bedroom 4 (21 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary Bath (7 x 6); Bathroom 2 (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ninth District Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 341 students, 87% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $225k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,448 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,938
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 W 28th St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,234 (-4%)	2mo	$266,000	$216	74
9 Madison Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (+1%)	2mo	$230,000	$177	69
8 W 30th St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+5%)	3mo	$77,600	$58	68
30 W 28th St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,157 (-10%)	1mo	$200,000	$173	67
2307 Herman St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (-2%)	0mo	$145,000	$115	62
36 Loraine Ct	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,280 (-0%)	2mo	$223,000	$174	61
218 W 21st St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-4%)	3mo	$246,500	$199	52
123 W 34th St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+14%)	3mo	$230,000	$156	51
3704 Huntington Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,212 (-6%)	0mo	$220,000	$182	50
3173 Clifford Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,105 (-14%)	1mo	$212,000	$192	48
332 W 21st St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	3mo	$167,000	$149	36
2011 Howell St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,104 (-14%)	2mo	$189,000	$171	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,249
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,239
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41015

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $194	+0% $130	+5% $66	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $55	+0% $130	+5% $206	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $187	base $130	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	9d	1	0.49mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	25d	1	0.93mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	6d	1	0.95mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	21d	1	0.95mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$2,365	$1.67	3d	14	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $225,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 695-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 691-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $229,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 48.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$547
• After-tax cash flow: $2,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• City population: 34,373
• Population (ZIP): 20,396

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.37%
• Current HPI: 203.7263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+576.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $229,900 NKMLS
• 1999-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $81,900 Public Records
• 1999-11-02 Sold (MLS) $81,900 NKMLS
• 1999-03-31 Listed $84,900 NKMLS
• 1985-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,304 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.