6315 Hams Ford Rd · Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA 22551

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2017 5.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

Key facts

• 5.3-acre parcel
• Agriculturally zoned
• Utilities installed

Tags

• 5.3-ACRE PARCEL
• AGRICULTURALLY ZONED
• DETACHED GARAGE
• UTILITIES INSTALLED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Spotsylvania Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#228 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $225k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,734 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.22%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,756
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,671
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $390	+0% $327	+5% $263	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $243	+0% $327	+5% $410	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $440	-0.5pp $384	base $327	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

3. 2026-03-26
   price $225,000

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

4. 2026-03-26
   price $225,000 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

5. 2026-02-26
   price $250,000 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

6. 2026-02-26
   listed $250,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

7. 2026-02-15
   listed $350,000 Active 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Rare 5.3-acre agriculturally zoned parcel in Spotsylvania County offering privacy and flexibility. Utilities (electric, water, plumbing) are already installed. Includes detached garage and a trailer conveyed as-is (not permanently affixed).

8. 2018-12-20
   soldstatus $50,000
9. 2005-05-05
   soldstatus $140,000
10. 1999-07-28
    soldstatus $65,000
11. 1995-01-30
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$976/yr (+$81/mo · 112.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $3,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Spotsylvania Courthouse

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #7688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,146
• Household income: $110,370
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.42%
• Current HPI: 284.319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $869 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.