3 Juniper Pass Ln · Ocala, FL 34480

$194,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1992 10,018 sqft lot $191/sqft · 5% below area Est $204k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice investment property or first home. Corner lot, close to schools and either Ocala or Belleview. Currently rented but will be vacant Nov 1.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• High-impact windows
• Tile flooring

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• HIGH-IMPACT WINDOWS
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LIGHT-FILLED INTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family (zoned R1)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Homestead exempt; Faces west
• Construction: Shingle roof; Block foundation; Other construction materials; Built on a 0.23-acre lot (approx. 80 x 125)
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Corner lot; Paved surfaces; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Programmable thermostat; Window treatments; Insulated windows; Shades; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($44/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Belleview Middle School (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #259 of 571 statewide, top 46%, 1,573 students, 60% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 350 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $194k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,115 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,353
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Juniper Trail Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-0%)	6mo	$210,000	$207	76
13 Juniper Trail Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,011 (-1%)	21mo	$200,000	$198	58
14 Juniper Pass Ter	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,138 (+12%)	5mo	$239,900	$211	54
40 Juniper Pass Trak	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+14%)	22mo	$225,000	$195	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-31,513
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,413
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34480

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,103/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $59	+0% $4	+5% $-51	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-56	+0% $4	+5% $63	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $53	base $4	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
57 Juniper Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,200	$1.23	15d	1	0.13mi
18 Juniper Trl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,750	$1.38	15d	1	0.38mi
7 Juniper Pass Way Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,750	$1.20	23d	1	0.39mi
28 Juniper Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,650	$1.14	23d	1	0.43mi
123 Juniper Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,695	$1.17	23d	1	0.52mi
50 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,795	$1.39	15d	1	0.53mi
47 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,235	$1.27	15d	1	0.59mi
338 Larch Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,595	$1.14	23d	1	0.63mi
52 Walnut Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	969	$1,175	$1.21	15d	1	0.64mi
31 Walnut Run Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,200	$1.23	15d	1	0.65mi
28 Poplar Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,650	$1.12	15d	1	0.66mi
60 Walnut Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	969	$1,200	$1.24	23d	1	0.66mi
66 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,175	$1.21	23d	1	1.19mi
11 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,725	$1.27	23d	1	1.22mi
58 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.22mi
54 Laurel Pass Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.24mi
23 Aspen Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,650	$1.18	23d	1	1.31mi
139 Pine Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,645	$1.18	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $194,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,000 Active 713-char remark
18. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus $78,000 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Nice investment property or first home. Corner lot, close to schools and either Ocala or Belleview. Currently rented but will be vacant Nov 1.

19. 2017-12-15
    soldstatus $78,000

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Nice investment property or first home. Corner lot, close to schools and either Ocala or Belleview. Currently rented but will be vacant Nov 1.

20. 2017-10-16
    listed $84,900 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    Nice investment property or first home. Corner lot, close to schools and either Ocala or Belleview. Currently rented but will be vacant Nov 1.

21. 2016-09-07
    soldstatus $65,100
22. 2016-09-02
    soldstatus $65,000

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Great concrete concrete block home. Nice corner lot. New AC Unit recently installed. One Car Garage. Call Agent for lock box code.

23. 2016-05-13
    listed $69,999

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Great concrete concrete block home. Nice corner lot. New AC Unit recently installed. One Car Garage. Call Agent for lock box code.

24. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $45,800
25. 1991-11-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,103 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$507/yr (+$42/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,103
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$3,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,517
• Household income: $77,557
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.60%
• Current HPI: 212.4262
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.84%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2671.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $194,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-15 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-16 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $65,100 Public Records
• 2016-09-02 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-13 Listed $69,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,800 Public Records
• 1991-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,103 · +24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.