4812 S Esmar Rd #25 · Keyes, CA 95307

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $114k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

EXELLENT BUY. Nice 2 bedroom, 2 Bath Mobil Home, 1440 Sq. Ft. Lots of potential. For Just $89,900.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1974
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,100
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; 220V outlet in laundry; Public water; Septic system
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1974
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting; Manufactured by Artic Mobile Homes
• Exterior features: Storage area; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dining and family area combined; Living room with additional feature; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.38%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,760
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 Faith Home Rd #26	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	85
4812 Esmar Rd #49	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$115,000	$75	84
4812 Esmar Rd #2	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	82
4837 Faith Home Rd #3	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$100,000	$69	78
4837 Faith Home Rd #4	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$94,999	$69	77
4837 Faith Home Rd #30	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$117,500	$82	74
4837 Faith Home Rd #166	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$135,000	$100	72
4812 Esmar Rd #18	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-11%)	14mo	$116,500	$91	65
4837 Faith Home Rd #169	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	23mo	$98,000	$79	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $51,441
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $129,878
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,036

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Hollywood Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	44d	1	0.33mi
5232 Clark St Keyes, CA	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,200	$1.94	14d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $94,000 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $11,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,807
• After-tax cash flow: $9,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B